From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Currency markets are reacting to the war that’s broken out in Europe.
In the past four trading sessions, the Russian ruble has dropped more than 1,000 pips against the US dollar.
And, with fear growing that these initial days of fighting will turn into a protracted conflict, weakness is striking the euro as well.
Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD cross and outline the levels we’re monitoring in the coming weeks and months.
Here's a daily chart of the EUR/USD going back to the pandemic lows:
After completing a large distribution pattern last September, the EUR/USD pair has been consolidating for the past several months and trading in a range between 1.1483 and 1.1121.
US Treasuries are off to their worst start in more than a decade as rates rise across the curve.
The US Aggregate Bond ETF $AGG is down more than 4% year to date. Treasuries can’t manage to catch a bid. And High-Yield Bonds $HYG have fallen off a cliff.
But this could all change quickly. Especially if stocks continue to sell off.
Money has to go somewhere as it flows out of equities. And with many bonds testing critical levels, it would make sense to see prices mean revert, at least in the near term.
Let’s take a trip around the bond market and discuss some of the key levels on our radar.
First up is the long duration Treasury Bond ETF $TLT:
After dropping 5.4% in the last three months, TLT has paused at a logical area of former support around 135. This the same level price rebounded from late 2019 and early 2021.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Despite the trendless nature of the major forex pairs, there’s still plenty of information coming from the exotics right now – particularly emerging market currencies.
The Chilean peso – and its relationship to copper – now has our attention.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of the USD/CLP cross overlaid with Copper Futures $HG_F with a correlation study in the lower pane:
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, which explains the strong negative correlation between the USD/CLP pair and the price of copper.
You can see this relationship in the chart, as USD/CLP tends to peak and roll over at the same time copper bottoms out, and vice versa.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Gold is the hot topic this week, now that it’s finally showing signs of life.
It’s impossible to deny gold’s near-term strength. But we think the setup probably needs more time to develop and work through all the overhead supply from the past few years.
Long story short, gold is still pretty messy if it's below the 2011 highs.
If and when the shiny metal makes a decisive resolution, there should be plenty of time to join in and ride the trend higher.
As for other areas within commodities, we continue to see a growing list of contracts reclaim key levels and print fresh highs.
Procyclical commodities like crude oil and gasoline might come to mind since they’re constantly in the news cycle.
But other areas, such as grains and even livestock, are also breaking to new multi-year highs.
Today, we’re going to highlight an agricultural commodity that often gets overlooked.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Not all stressors are debilitating.
In some cases, stress can push us to perform at our highest level. But, of course, there are instances when opposing forces become overwhelming, making it near impossible to reach our goals.
We’ve all been there.
And the markets are no different.
While we keep tabs on our heart rate or blood pressure to gauge our stress levels, we focus on credit spreads to measure stress in the market.
Given that rates continue to rise worldwide, it’s an appropriate time to evaluate these spreads and the potential obstacles that may lay ahead for risk assets.
We recently broke down credit spreads in anticipation of them widening and outlined some charts that are driving this trend.
Read our January 27 post for more information about the ins and outs of credit spreads and how we analyze them.
Since these spreads provide valuable information on the health of the overall market, we’re going to check back in and discuss another chart that is on our radar.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Consolidation and range-bound action have dominated the currency market since late last year.
While commodities and cyclical stocks -- especially energy -- continue to catch a bid, commodity-centric currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars fail to show any definitive signs of strength.
At the same time, the US dollar isn’t doing much either, as the US Dollar Index $DXY has been chopping sideways for several months.
Long story short, indecision is the overarching theme for forex markets at the moment.
One forex pair that does an excellent job of illustrating the trendless nature of these markets is the AUD/JPY.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The middle of the curve is catching higher as the US 10-year Treasury yield pushes toward its next milestone at 2.00%.
Now that we’re starting to see some follow-through to the upside, it raises the question…
Are these new highs in the 10-year sustainable?
With inflation expectations just off their highs, short-term rates surging in the US, and yields ripping higher across the globe, we think the answer is a resounding yes!
A few weeks ago, we discussed how global yields -- particularly those in developed Europe -- were confirming the new highs for US yields.
Since then, we've only seen this trend accelerate. With central banks turning increasingly hawkish, rates continue to break out to new highs around the world.
Today, we're going to dive further into this theme by taking a look at a handful of benchmark rates outside the US.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar can’t catch a bid.
Since briefly reclaiming its November highs last month, it’s been nothing but down and to the right for the US Dollar Index $DXY.
Many global currencies have reacted by catching higher – especially the euro. But commodity-centric currencies – like the Canadian and Australian dollars – have had a more muted reaction. We think that’s likely to change in the coming weeks and months.
With interest rates on the rise around the world and crude oil prices pushing above 90, we think it’s just a matter of time before we begin to see some real strength from these currencies – especially if we see a sustained downtrend in the USD.
Today we’re going to highlight one of these forex pairs, as we think it’s poised for a major move. Let’s talk about the USD/CAD.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The path of least resistance is higher for yields, as the market continues to punish investors for buying bonds.
As long as that’s the case, we want to look for short opportunities when approaching the bond market.
Since the shorter end of the curve has ripped higher, the moves in these contracts and ETFs are extended. They simply don't offer favorable risk/reward trade setups at current levels.
We’re better off looking for ways to play rising yields further out on the curve in this environment.
We’re going to discuss how to do just that by covering a few charts that are setting up on the short side.
First up is the 30-year Treasury bond futures:
T-bonds are carving out a multi-year head-and-shoulders top above their pivot lows from last March.
