From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets constantly provide valuable information. But it’s up to us to listen.

Of course, it’s easy to get caught in a narrative or bias surrounding a particular market. It’s part of the human condition.

And it’s almost a prerequisite. 

In order to step up to the line and assume risk, we need to have a certain level of conviction. At the same time, we must remain open-minded and flexible, willing to receive new information and update our priors.

It’s a balancing act.

And energy is one area of the commodity market that’s keeping us on our toes.

Heading into Q3, we were looking for energy to follow the vast majority of other commodities lower, including base and industrial metals.

So far, that hasn’t been the case. 

The chart below highlights how closely the two procyclical commodities groups have trailed each other heading into 2022:

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

The market environment has been shifting in favor of the bulls all summer.

Breadth thrusts are firing as participation beneath the surface expands. Risk assets – commodities and stocks alike – are reclaiming critical levels of former support.

And our bull market rebirth checklist is triggering four out of five criteria.

This is a huge departure from earlier in the year.

But one aspect of the environment remains the same – interest rates. Yes, rates have come off their June peak. And, yes, US yields have paused at a logical level marked by a series of former highs.

That’s all true, and it all makes perfect sense.

But we still find ourselves in a rising-rate market as the underlying uptrend remains intact – for now.

Earlier in the month, we broke down the ranges in the 30-, 10-, and 5-year US yields. Today, we'll turn our attention overseas.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

As I scrolled through my currency charts this weekend, the same three-word phrase kept popping to mind: "Can’t be short!"

Whether it’s the Swiss franc, the British pound, or the Thai baht, we can’t be short most global currencies against the US dollar. Not at current levels.

There is one major exception. It’s the euro.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter where you look: Commodities are digging in, finding support, and reclaiming key levels.

Grains, softs, base metals, and energy have all stopped going down. Even gold is bouncing off critical levels of former support.

But it’s not just the fact the commodity correction is hitting the pause button that’s important.

It’s where it's happening.

Let’s take a look at a few charts.

First we have cotton futures:

Cotton completed a monster base, breaking to fresh 10-year highs last October. A strong advance took hold during the following months.

But it was answered by a near-vertical decline back into its prior range.

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for months, and now they’re starting to take shape.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh lows, violating a multi-month trend line.

And interest rates… well, they haven’t moved much. They continue to hold their range after peaking in June. 

As expected, stocks surged yesterday in response to a weaker dollar and stable bond market. 

But stocks aren’t the only risk assets on the rise. Investors are moving out on the risk curve and bidding up high-yield bonds, too.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 Index $SPX:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

How funny would it be if the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked with the expectations of a 100 basis point rate hike last month?

And what would that mean for risk assets and the stock market rally?

These are just a few questions that float across my mind as I look through currency charts.

To be clear, the DXY isn't showing any signs of a top. Momentum remains in a bullish regime, and the index is holding above the upper bounds of its former range. 

I’m not going out on a limb here and calling a top in the US dollar. Instead, this is all about execution and remaining receptive to all possibilities.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Energy futures are beginning to crack under pressure.

Crude oil and gasoline are breaking down to their lowest levels since February. And heating oil isn’t far behind, as it’s challenging the lower bounds of a similar distribution pattern.

It appears that the bears have finally come for energy.

Since we already laid out our short idea for crude oil futures in a recent post, today, our focus is on the energy sector and the implications these breakdowns carry for energy-related stocks.

Here’s a chart of the Energy Sector ETF $XLE:

From the Desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It’s been an action-packed year for the bond market. Rates have ripped, and bonds have been in free fall worldwide. But US yields stopped going up in June. 

More recently, many European benchmark rates have turned lower in dramatic fashion.

Now the question is whether US yields will roll over and follow to the downside.

Instead of getting caught up in the Fed chatter and all its implications, let’s focus on the key levels we’re using as a roadmap for treasury markets in the coming weeks and months.

Here’s a triple-pane chart of the US 30-, 10-, and five-year yields:

All three are carving out potential tops just beneath their respective 2018 highs. You can see the tops in the chart above.

And those critical 2018 highs are highlighted below:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter which way you slice it. The current market environment is a US dollar story.

Whether you’re talking about stocks or commodities, a rally in risk assets isn’t happening against a rising dollar.

It’s that simple.

You probably think I say the same thing every week. That’s because I do.

Of course, I throw in a well-defined trade setup here and there, but always within the context of the dollar and its impact on the major asset classes.

It’s that important. 

As the US Dollar Index rally is well underway, it’s interesting some individual USD crosses are finding resistance at historical levels of interest to both the currencies involved and risk assets!

Here’s a chart of the US dollar/Swedish krona cross zoomed out to the late 1990s: 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The past two years of sideways chop on the gold chart has been a game of perseverance and pain. 

Gold is a honey badger, attacking a beehive face-first, digging for larvae, and somehow persevering through a thousand bee stings.

That can’t be fun, especially as other areas of the market have experienced explosive trends. But it works for the honey badger.

And it's worked for gold.

Now that commodities and stocks have come under increased selling pressure, the data continues to mount in favor of declining gold prices. 

Precious metals are looking weak. Gold stocks are breaking down on absolute and relative bases. And signs of risk appetite are nowhere to be seen.

But gold doesn’t care.

Before we get into the absolute weakness in gold and other precious metals, let’s review the relative weakness in the mining space.

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.    

Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.

I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.

And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.

Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Anyone can enter a trade. It’s easy. 

But before you step up to the line to place your bet, you must have a plan – a set of rules rooted in risk management to guide you through your trade.

There’s no way to enter and manage a trade if you don’t know where you’re right, where you’re wrong, and where you’re taking profits. Without a plan, your strategy and philosophical approach to the markets don’t matter. 

That brings us to the British pound.

Here’s a chart of the GBP/USD cross:

A few weeks ago, we outlined a short setup in the GBP/USD pair. The pound was breaking down to levels associated with the Brexit sell-off, and we wanted to ride that trend lower.