These ratios typically trend in the same direction as interest rates. But this hasn't been the case since last year.
And when we consider that yields are trapped below major resistance zones, we really like the counter-trend opportunity bonds are offering at these levels.
Let’s review a few setups from our Q3 Playbook we like for buying a bounce in bonds.
The US dollar and interest rates are still two of the most important charts out there. You’re probably tired of hearing it, but their future direction impacts the entire marketplace.
And, believe it or not, the currency market provides a great read on both.
Bullish data points continue to roll in left and right, supporting dollar strength. From the Korean won and Singaporean dollar to the euro and the pound, the dollar seems to break out against another currency every few days.
When we evaluate the trends in emerging market commodity currencies, it reveals insight into the recent rise in interest rates. Instead of showing strength, these currencies are catching lower -- which doesn’t jibe with a rising rate environment.
Sellers are in the driver's seat when it comes to commodities these days.
Besides natural gas and livestock contracts, few commodities present buying opportunities that we like. In reality, most have either broken down or are on the verge of breaking down.
As the latest bout of selling pressure shows little signs of easing, we’re likely to experience more damage in the coming days and weeks.
Copper, one of the most economically sensitive and widely followed commodities in the world, is a great example of recent weakness. It can’t stop falling.
Given the downside volatility raw materials have experienced since the start of the summer, many trends are stretched. We don’t want to be too bearish here. We want to let the dust settle.
With that said, it’s hard not to imagine where the bears will strike next.
And when we scroll through our charts, it looks like they have crude oil in their sights.
It’s inescapable. If you haven’t read it in the news, seen it on Twitter, or heard it from a co-worker, here’s the scoop…
The euro has tumbled to parity with the dollar for the first time in almost 20 years!
That’s the big news in the currency markets these days. Sure, it’s a significant development.
But what currency isn’t falling against the US dollar right now?
It’s an interesting question. And it draws our attention to the Canadian dollar.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of the USD/CAD cross:
While the US dollar steamrolls everything in sight and prints fresh decade-highs against most major currencies, it’s still dealing with last year’s highs against the Canadian dollar.
Despite positive returns at the index level for Q2, commodities have been in full retreat for the past month or more. We broke the damage down in last week’s post.
However you want to slice it, commodities are under increased selling pressure. The strongest areas aren’t breaking out; they’re trying to hold support.
That’s simply how raw materials are performing in the current environment. Yet we’re still finding levels we want to trade against from the long side.
Believe it or not, one of these situations is popping up in one of our favorite energy contracts…
Yes, these crosses have been trending lower since the beginning of the year. But with the critical levels that broke yesterday, we're anticipating fresh downside legs and prolonged dollar dominance.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
So far, 2022 has been a historic year. That theme intensified during the second quarter, which is now in the books.
The bond market is working on one of its worst years on record. The S&P 500 just posted its worst quarterly return since 1970 with the index down more than 16% from January through March.
Bitcoin finished the quarter with its second-worst return in its short history. And now the energy sector – the market’s leader this year – just posted its third-worst monthly return since the 1990s.
The operative words here are “worst” and “return.”
That’s 2022 in a nutshell. The bears are in complete control.
However, one area that has held up through all this is commodities. It was the best-performing asset class in 2021, and it’s the only one to close the first half of 2022 in the green.
Let’s note that the first quarter of 2022 was far different from the second. And before we go running to commodities for safety, let’s put the group’s recent performance in perspective.
No one likes a bear market, except for the bears of course.
They haze the uninitiated, test market veterans, and remind everyone that assets can go to zero.
Not fun for most!
When we take a step back and assess all the data in front of us today, the outlook remains dismal for the overall market.
The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq have posted more new lows than new highs for 31 weeks and counting. Leadership groups carry a defensive tone. Topping patterns continue to resolve lower. Support levels are being ignored and violated. Long story short, it's ugly out here.
And it's not only stocks... Bitcoin just booked its worst month and quarter in over a decade and bonds are having one of their worst years in history.
No wonder investor sentiment is in the dumps. It’s clear we are in the midst of a bear market.
They’ve replaced the comical “stocks only go up” memes with images of the grim reaper coming for our favorite names. Even memes aren’t as funny in a bear market!
In almost every market environment, there are assets we want to buy and assets we want to sell. That holds even when we think the only option is to sell.
Recently, the strong buys have been in commodities and cyclical areas of the market, while bonds and the major stock indexes have sold off. That's dramatically changed in recent weeks, though.
Now, all the major asset classes – bonds, stocks, and commodities – are under pressure, as bears come for the leadership groups. It seems nothing is immune to bearish price action these days.
Despite the broad selling pressure, there's still an asset we want to buy: the US dollar. That’s right, the good old greenback! It’s one thing the bears can’t seem to crack.
If we think about it from an intermarket perspective, a defensive bid for dollars makes sense given the downside pressure on risk assets across the board. We don’t think it’s a coincidence.
Regardless, the USD is strong and shows no signs of changing anytime soon.
When one of the most important procyclical assets breaks to fresh 52-week lows, it takes center stage. It also has major implications across a variety of markets.
But what about energy? What about grains and softs and the rest of the commodity space?
Well, most of those contracts have already been in correction mode.
And, based on the recent selloff in energy and other commodity-related stocks, a much deeper correction could be in store for these raw materials.
It’s definitely something we’re monitoring. And that’s where copper and today’s chart in focus come into play.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s an overlay chart of copper futures and the five-year breakeven inflation rate:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Bonds are off to their worst start in the past 40 years, possibly ever!
It’s not even close.
As we near the end of Q2, the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is down almost 22% year to date. And that’s after its recent bounce higher.
There's been nowhere to hide, as these traditional safe-haven assets have been an absolute dumpster fire along with stocks.
But we’re starting to see some of those flames extinguished.
Some of the worst-performing stocks tipped the bond market’s hand ahead of the recent lows. That’s right: Those Big Tech names and Chinese internet stocks stopped going down months ago and now bonds are following higher.
Believe it or not, bonds and high-duration equities have a lot in common. The Growth $IWF versus Value $IWD ratio really tells the story.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s an overlay chart of the TLT and the IWF/IWD ratio:
