From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

All signs point to a weaker dollar.

Crude oil slipping below 78… interest rates cutting through a multi-month trendline… emerging market currencies hitting fresh year-to-date highs… risk assets ripping…

Yet the buck refuses to budge.

The US Dollar Index $DXY is holding steady at a confluence of support, marked by a critical polarity zone and the year-to-date trendline:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are enjoying record-breaking highs.

Dr. Copper, Papa Dow, and international equity indexes such as the FTSE 100 are making the new all-time highs list. And Bitcoin will likely join them as it climbs back above 70,000.

Yet the defiant dollar remains afloat.

Nevertheless, risk-seeking behavior, Emerging Market currencies, and interest rates imply the dollar will eventually sink.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury benchmark interest rate led the US Dollar Index $DXY in violating a year-to-date trendline. 

Here’s the US 10-year yield $TNX overlaid with DXY:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

May showers and meme stocks are rolling through.

Roaring Kitty is back, leaning into his detractors with his trademark flair. 

AMC and GameStop $GME are ripping. Gold mining stocks are picking up the pace. And the US dollar…

Surprisingly, it’s still holding above former support.

The 105 - 104.75 area marks the spot for the US Dollar Index $DXY: 

A decisive close below that key polarity zone places the dollar back in the box, giving stock market bulls free rein.

Yet investors don’t seem to care about the greenback. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Buyers are coming to the dollar’s rescue following last week’s drop.

But I’m still bearish. 

Of course, none of that matters if the US Dollar Index $DXY continues to rally and these trade setups fail to trigger entry signals.

Here’s a quick look at the DXY finding support at a critical retracement level:

It’s a logical area for dollar bulls to take a stand as a shelf of former highs act as support.

However, crude oil's slide below a similar shelf of former highs raises doubts about a sustained bullish defense. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Japanese government isn’t playing games.

Currency crisis or not, Tokyo is willing to defend the yen in the open market. It's proven this multiple times over the past three years, and today’s FOMC-related volatility will likely test its resolve. 

Considering previous yen-buying interventions, the dollar, interest rates, and the dollar-yen pair could be headed lower in the coming months.

Before we dive into the yen, here's a quick update on the action in the euro and pound.

The euro retested its breakdown level from earlier this month, forming a bear flag:

A close below 1.06 completes the flag pattern and sets a rough downside objective of 1.0450.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did you see the candlestick in the Mexican peso last Friday?

It was all wick!

The way I learned it, you want to trade in the opposite direction of blow-offs like this. 

That means betting on a stronger peso and an end to the stock market correction.

Check out the XXXL lower shadow in the Mexican peso futures (denominated in USD):

Last Friday’s intraday swing spanned six percent and registered the highest single-day ATR reading since March 2020.

Despite the earth-shattering volatility, the bulls prevailed. That’s the critical lesson from last week’s action: The bulls immediately repaired the damage. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed these trends driving the markets?

Commodities are ripping. The energy sector is outperforming. Interest rates are climbing while US treasury bonds fall apart…  

Of course, we can’t forget about the US dollar’s rally.

I continue to err in the direction of these underlying trends. But the dollar rally will likely run out of gas soon…

Check out the US Dollar Index $DXY printing its highest level since November. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Interest rates are climbing worldwide. The US dollar is dominating the pack.

And commodities are kicking off the next leg of a bull run that began in 2019.

The primary trends that opened the decade are showing no signs of reversing. As long as they remain intact, we must lean into them.

I can’t think of a stronger trend to ride than the dollar-yen…

The USD/JPY pair is posting its highest level since June 1990:

Now that’s a big base breakout.

Fresh 33-year highs ignite the imagination. But, from a tactical perspective, I’m more concerned with the completion of a 17-month cup-and-handle.

Here’s a closer look:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week’s tactical setups are heading toward our targets as G10 currencies lose ground against a rising dollar.

If you let the pound or kiwi trade pass, fear not.

The US dollar/Canadian dollar pair is entering our wheelhouse…

Check out the greenback-loonie challenging a key retracement and former resistance level at approximately 1.36:

I placed a stop order above last Friday’s high of 1.3606. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Currency markets refuse to choose a direction.

Up, down, or sideways: None appeal to the major US dollar pairs.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index $DXY is catching toward the upper bounds of its yearlong range.

If the dollar continues to rise, these swing trades will break for our targets…

I was monitoring the British pound for a breakdown below the December 2023 lows at approximately 1.25:

Instead of resolving lower, the GBP/USD took the opposite route, breaking above the December 2023 highs.

But those new highs were short-lived as the pound slipped back into its prior range. (Talk about indecisive!)

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is outshining the dollar.

The greenback doesn’t know which way to go, as FX markets offer traders little in the way of breakouts.

Instead of reviewing the chopfest, playing devil’s advocate, and weighing the lack of evidence for a near-term directional bias, let’s turn to a trending market for insight into the dollar.

Spoiler alert: It’s shiny, yellow, and trading at new all-time highs.

Yes, I’m referring to Gold.

Gold and the US dollar hold a classic intermarket relationship — an overt negative correlation. 

As I reviewed the charts this weekend, another pattern emerged between the two. 

I decided to offset Gold ahead of the dollar by roughly two to four years. After adjusting the charts, I landed on setting Gold forward by 130 weeks (approximately two-and-a-half years).

And voila:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks only go up.

Bitcoin is screaming its way back to the former all-time highs. Crude is printing multi-month highs. Even gold is breaking out to new all-time highs after going nowhere for years.

We’re entering the Davey Day Trader part of the cycle — green hammer and all.

Everything is trending higher. Everything except the dollar, that is…

The US Dollar Index $DXY is trading smack dab in the middle of last year’s October-to-December decline:

DXY rebounded to start the year only to find resistance at a critical retracement level.