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A Pivotal Moment

January 19, 2023

Forget cryptocurrencies. Look at these crypto stocks!

Seriously, some of these moves have been nuts.

We took a small long in MicroStrategy $MSTR at the lows, and it hit our 50%-plus target in just two weeks.

Crazy...

If cryptocurrencies are going to start trending higher -- which is our bet -- these stocks face serious resistance.

But let's approach this with a level head.

All Star Charts Crypto

Taking a Tactical Look

January 18, 2023

We did it.

We've flipped the book long.

With Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH reclaiming their prior-cycle highs, we even went as far as arguing that this recent move represents a structural regime shift for the asset class.

In our view, both the short and intermediate-term trends have now definitively shifted higher.

This comes within the context of a slew of risk-on developments in traditional markets.

 

 

 

All Star Charts Crypto

A Structural Shift

January 17, 2023

What a week, eh?

Bitcoin had its best week in two years, with the orange coin rallying 22%. Many coins followed suit, with names like Solana gaining a whopping 60% last week.

This move was merely a continuation of the momentum we pointed out at the beginning of last week, with many of our internal breadth metrics moving into bullish conditions.

 

 

The Peril of Comforting Narratives

January 12, 2023

From the Desk of Louis Sykes

Every child loves a bedtime story.

These stories allow their mind to wander from busy thoughts into an adventure. It provides a comforting reality and a narrative they can consciously control.

Comically, in this sense, children and investors are more similar than we let on.

It's just that one obtains comfort from an adventurous tale while the other derives solace in news headlines.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is bad or wrong. I'm just noting its existence.

The vast majority of investors need to understand why a stock is moving rather than solely following technicals and money flow.

I totally get it.

All Star Charts Crypto

Some Context for This Rally

January 10, 2023

There's no denying many alts have posted sizeable gains over the last week.

But the fact remains that the appropriate conditions have yet to align for us to flip the book long.

Perhaps the best example of this is the recent move in Gala $GALA.

From the lows to the highs, Gala saw a 230% gain in the space of two weeks. It is, by far, the strongest name in this entire market rally.

But despite this 3x move, we're still below this broken support. Chances are, bears will step in here, and Gala will see some rightful consolidation.

This is just not a chart we want to buy on any level.

Harmony $ONE looks similar in that its retesting this breakdown level from the underside.

All Star Charts Crypto

Altcoins Gather Momentum

January 9, 2023

Over the last week, we've seen momentum flow down the cap scale in crypto markets. Many altcoins have posted sizeable gains coming from historically skewed levels.

This is happening in the context of a tightening volatility regime, where price stability in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most alts were at some of the highest levels in recent history.

 

 

 

The Headwind for Crypto

January 5, 2023

We've said it time and time again.

It's all about the US dollar!

When did the NYSE new highs list peak? When the dollar bottomed...

When did equities bottom? When the dollar rolled over...

It's not rocket science.

I don't care why it's the case because the correlations are so evident. It's a fundamental reality in this tape: A weak dollar is positive for stocks and crypto, while a strong dollar pressures those assets.

Now, consider: What have been the defensive assets in this market?

The Japanese yen? Nope.

Gold? Not until recently.

Bonds? Hell no.

Whenever shit's hit the fan, that money has flowed into the US dollar.

It ain't rocket science, folks.

All Star Charts Crypto

Giving Saylor the Benefit of the Doubt

January 4, 2023

Make no mistake: Volatility is around the corner.

While price action is trending in nature, volatility mean-reverts. Periods of low volatility precede volatility expansions and vice versa.

So, where do we find ourselves today?

Bitcoin's price stability is at its third-highest level in the last five years.

Have you noticed?

Crypto volatility has completely died off. You'd probably get more juice trading the equity indices than shitcoins these days.

These extremes in volatility -- or lack thereof -- don't last long.

So, we're placing a high likelihood that Bitcoin will make a decisive move in the coming weeks.

And how are we looking to profit from this upcoming move?