In yesterday's note, we outlined our tactical short if Bitcoin was below 59k.

We gave the bears the benefit of the doubt, but they couldn't keep prices under 60k for long at all.

We have no shame in being wrong and flipping our approach as new data comes in. In fact, we pride ourselves on always adapting to new evidence and never being dogmatic. The quicker we know we're wrong the better, because we can move on to bigger and better opportunities. In this case, we knew in just a few short hours!

This seems like a textbook failed head-and-shoulders pattern right now:

Over the last week, we've raised attention on the increasing leverage being introduced in the derivative markets elevating the downside risks of the overall crypto market.

We were seeing this with record-high open interest across the board and excessive funding in the face of declining prices.

This morning, we've seen this downside risk play out in some respects, with $200M worth in Bitcoin positions getting liquidated over the last 24 hours, quickly sending prices below 60,000.

All-time highs can be messy, and many times, the breakout comes after the shakeout.

So will it be like this?

Considering the accumulation taking place by long-term spot investors on-chain, it's certainly looking that way.

Yesterday we saw a notable outflow out of exchanges as investors continue to scoop coins off exchanges and into cold storage to HODL.

Not bearish.

So if and when Bitcoin resolves higher back above 65k, we'll be positioned aggressively long both Bitcoin and in quality alts.

This is the video recording of our October 22, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Bitcoin officially made an all-time yesterday, eclipsing its first-half highs around 65,000.

The importance of this cannot be overstated.

The question is whether or not Bitcoin can stick the landing. It's likely to be a process.

Our Top 5 Crypto Index is also on the verge of completing this major base.

Over longer timeframes, this price action is far from bearish.

Over the last month, we've argued that there's evidence Bitcoin could lead the altcoins.

We've seen this play out, but it looks like Bitcoin could be due for a rest relative to its counterparts.

Buyers are still in the process of absorbing Bitcoin's overhead supply around 65,000, and we're yet to see a decisive breakout.

We hate sounding like such a broken record about this level, but we really need to be downright obnoxious about its importance.

Though we think Bitcoin will eventually breakout, we wanted to dive deeper into the near-term risks associated with the leverage that speculators have recently adopted that elevates the risk of another potential long squeeze in the coming weeks.

In this chart, we're looking at Bitcoin's total open interest as well as the open interest held exclusively in perpetual future contracts. Since Bitcoin bottomed at the end of September, we've seen OI jump by a notable $11B in just 3-weeks.

Just like that, Bitcoin hit our upside objective.

Now, patience is warranted as demand begins to absorb the looming supply around these levels.

It'd be prudent to raise cash and take some profits off the table while Bitcoin is below 65,000. Below there, the downside risks remain elevated for now.

This is the video recording of our October 15, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Some of us were discussing internally today's topic.

After a few minutes, we were stumped.

The market hasn't given us much to write about over the last week.

And that's fine. If the market isn't giving you anything new, don't spend your day looking at the screen for something that isn't there.

Over the last few months, we've focused on names trading above their spring highs.

Along with this simple message, we've included this chart featuring four prominent names right at their highs from earlier in the year:

We're putting so much effort into this setup for two reasons:

• All-time highs are achieved in the strongest of assets.
• Buying new highs allows us to define our risk.

First, bases take time to build.

Bases of this magnitude are formed by accumulation from people with a lot of money that needs to be put to work. Institutions -- or, in the case of crypto, whales -- need liquidity to enter long-term spot positions. They don't have the luxuries of more nimble traders who are able to enter and exit at will and start long-term positions when momentum heats up on a breakout.

Scouring our charts this morning, we couldn't help see that a lot of coins are getting tight out there.

With this volatility contraction, a big move could be on the cards, in either direction...

Big names like Cardano and Avalanche are wedged in contracting consolidation patterns. The resolution from these will likely set the stage for the coming weeks ahead.

And when we look to Bitcoin, prices have been in a very tight range, and this morning seems to be breaking higher.

Compressions like these tend to proceed quick and violent moves, just like the volatility contraction that we were writing about at the end of July before Bitcoin's monster rally off its lows.

This is the video recording of our October 8, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.