There's no denying many alts have posted sizeable gains over the last week.

But the fact remains that the appropriate conditions have yet to align for us to flip the book long.

Perhaps the best example of this is the recent move in Gala $GALA.

From the lows to the highs, Gala saw a 230% gain in the space of two weeks. It is, by far, the strongest name in this entire market rally.

But despite this 3x move, we're still below this broken support. Chances are, bears will step in here, and Gala will see some rightful consolidation.

This is just not a chart we want to buy on any level.

Harmony $ONE looks similar in that its retesting this breakdown level from the underside.

Over the last week, we've seen momentum flow down the cap scale in crypto markets. Many altcoins have posted sizeable gains coming from historically skewed levels.

This is happening in the context of a tightening volatility regime, where price stability in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most alts were at some of the highest levels in recent history.

We've said it time and time again.

It's all about the US dollar!

When did the NYSE new highs list peak? When the dollar bottomed...

When did equities bottom? When the dollar rolled over...

It's not rocket science.

I don't care why it's the case because the correlations are so evident. It's a fundamental reality in this tape: A weak dollar is positive for stocks and crypto, while a strong dollar pressures those assets.

Now, consider: What have been the defensive assets in this market?

The Japanese yen? Nope.

Gold? Not until recently.

Bonds? Hell no.

Whenever shit's hit the fan, that money has flowed into the US dollar.

It ain't rocket science, folks.

Make no mistake: Volatility is around the corner.

While price action is trending in nature, volatility mean-reverts. Periods of low volatility precede volatility expansions and vice versa.

So, where do we find ourselves today?

Bitcoin's price stability is at its third-highest level in the last five years.

Have you noticed?

Crypto volatility has completely died off. You'd probably get more juice trading the equity indices than shitcoins these days.

These extremes in volatility -- or lack thereof -- don't last long.

So, we're placing a high likelihood that Bitcoin will make a decisive move in the coming weeks.

And how are we looking to profit from this upcoming move?

This is the video recording of our December 30, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This market's been so easy, right?

You literally had to do nothing, and you've outperformed some of the most sophisticated crypto trading firms on the planet.

By loss realization and institutional contagion, this is the single worst crypto bear market in history.

So, if you're still here with a few dollars to your name, take solace in the fact that you've done a better job at risk management than some of the most intelligent players in the space.

For us, our process has been incredibly simple.

The trend has been down, and we haven't wanted to buy rallies until some long-term bullish shape has been put in.

In recent months, we've been incredibly persistent with our cautious approach while most coins are below their June lows.

Take our equally weighted altcoin index. There's nothing to be done here:

This is the video recording of our December 23, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's no denying it.

The US dollar has been an incredible reflection of financial conditions this year. By extension, the correlations between the dollar and risk assets have held firm.

Equities and crypto were under pressure whenever the US dollar trended higher in 2022.

And when the dollar was correcting, equities and crypto were trending higher.

We don't need to overcomplicate this.

The strategy was simple: long Coinbase $COIN above the May lows while cutting our losses below there.

And, lo and behold, it took out those pivot lows. Like any responsible trader using good risk-management practices, we took the loss on the chin and got out of the position.

We were either plain wrong or got the timing off on the trade, so we stuck to our plan and obeyed the price action. We thought the stock was good for a bounce.

But, clearly, COIN had other ideas.

What a sloppy tape.

Don't let these drawdowns fool you; there is nothing stopping this market from getting worse. Over the last week, we've seen even more downside participation manifest, with many coins taking out their most recent November pivot lows.

It's just terrible.

In our Dec. 5 note, Hitting Resistance, we argued the case for continued caution.

With the S&P 500 $SPX testing its channel resistance, the US Dollar Index $DXY sitting on long-term support, and the correlations to legacy markets getting tighter, there was no conviction to be had in long positions.

In recent weeks, we've seen risk-off action persist, with the S&P closing the last two weeks down more than 5%. Further, altcoins have slumped, with many taking out their November lows.

This remains an incredibly sloppy tape, where high cash positions and patience provide the trading edge.

This is the video recording of our December 16, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.