From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Industrial metals have been one of the strongest subgroups within the commodity complex over the trailing year. 

The parabolic advance in Steel futures off last year’s lows is an excellent illustration of this.

But lately, we see more and more commodities shift toward sideways trends in the intermediate-term. And lots of them are doing so trapped beneath overhead supply. 

A quick glance at charts like crude oil or copper tells this story well -- the last four months have been a chop fest for most.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley

In last week’s Commodity Report we highlighted the Uranium ETF $URA and promised to dig up some trade ideas within this outperforming group of stocks.

While everyone was enjoying the Labor Day weekend, barbecuing, and watching football - we were pouring over our Uranium universe to uncover the best risk/reward opportunities in the strongest names. 

But hey, this is what we love to do!

So let’s dive right in and see what we found.

First of all, why do we like Uranium so much right now?

Both the Uranium ETF and the underlying commodity are showing leadership and breaking out of 6-year bases. That's more than good enough for us.

In any given market there is never a time when all constituents move up together and vice versa. There is always an internal substitution at play. It is this game of musical chairs that helps us identify the sectors/sections that are exhibiting outperformance.

Once we are aware of the outperforming nature of certain ticker symbols, it becomes easier to select our avenues of investment.

Keeping that in mind, we are here to discuss two representatives from the commodity universe that are displaying strength.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

In today’s Commodity Report, we zoomed out to our monthly charts to reconnect with the primary trend. This exercise really allows us to tune out the noise on the weekly and daily charts.

As we were reviewing our charts, there was one recurring theme that kept popping up...

Pullbacks and retests.

The CRB Index retested its breakout zone near the 2018 highs ~206. 

Crude oil broke back below a 13-year downtrend line only to reclaim it in recent sessions. 

Iron ore fell right back to check in on its 2013 highs. 

And even palladium, the one bright spot in the precious metals space, pulled back to a six-year trendline. 

But guess what? Just like we’ve recently seen in many of the weakest areas in other asset classes, buyers dug in at these key levels.  

Of all these retests, one that stood out most was Uranium. 

Let’s take a look.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

In our last report, we discussed all the whipsaws we had been witnessing in recent weeks and noted that the next major piece of information would be the velocity of the reactions these charts made in the opposite direction.

It's that time of the month, guys!

We get to see monthly candlesticks and refocus on the broader trend. We've said time and again how messy the current market is. When we look at the daily chart, we see a mess. When we look at a weekly chart, we see a mess. But when we look at monthly charts, a lot of things become clear.

It's almost as if you're trying to take a picture but the lens is unable to focus on the object. Monthly candlesticks correct just that. They help us focus on the object and present a clear picture of the trend.

We took a peek at some of the charts, and at a broader level, we thought these help understand some trends clearly.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Pockets of strength continue to emerge within commodities.

This could be hard for some to believe when we see things like energy chopping beneath overhead supply.

Or the fact that precious metals persist in slumming it as some of the worst-performing assets on the planet.

But this is a diverse asset class with plenty of bright spots that suggest strength and support our thesis of a new commodities supercycle.

We’ve recently covered breakouts in Sugar and Feeder Cattle that are both still in play.

Even some of the laggards, like Silver and Lumber, recently defended critical areas of support.

This week, it was impossible to miss the chart of Oat futures. Let’s have a look!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

In our last report, we pounded the table on our position that markets are a total mess these days. Another theme we hit on was how many significant risk assets were trading at or below critical levels of overhead supply.

Commodities are just as messy as any other market at this point, with a lot of constituents now flirting with their overhead resistances.

In such a market scenario, there is one name that's peeping out above its resistance. And that's the name we're going to discuss today.