Today we sit down with my old pal Larry McDonald.

When it comes to the bond market, Larry is the guy I want to talk to. And with Bonds getting off to their worst start to a year, maybe ever, what better time than the present to dive into the fixed income markets?

While I had him, we also discussed the equities markets, commodities, metals and Crypto.

This was a fun one.

I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Commodities are off to another record year -- and it’s only April!

Crude oil and friends are leading the charge as the energy-heavy CRB Index is up 34% year to date. 

Oil ripped above 100 in February and has been in a corrective phase since. The energy complex remains red-hot though, with natural gas futures breaking to fresh 13-year highs this week.

While crude oil finds its footing, its derivatives -- heating oil and gasoline, are coiling just beneath all-time highs and gearing up for some massive base breakouts.

We’re also seeing some bullish data points for the broader oil and gas industry as crack spreads are expanding and signaling a healthy demand for black gold. This bodes particularly well for oil refiners.

All of this price behavior is what we like to call rotation.

It's an essential characteristic of any real bull market, and it’s exactly what we’re seeing from commodities these days.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our April Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can click here to review the recording and download the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises, as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

We're back with another commodity post in the Commodity Check series. Today we're highlighting a commodity that had quite a meteoric rise since November 2021. In February this year, we saw the price consolidate sideways. But guess what? We have a breakout!

Let me give you another hint. It's another Agri commodity.

Did you guess it yet?

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Following some explosive moves earlier in the year, the past few weeks have been full of sideways action for commodities.

Energy contracts are correcting. Copper continues to consolidate. And gold is chopping around in the middle of its multi-year range.

But when it comes to commodities, there’s always an opportunity right around the corner. 

Last week, we pointed out the burgeoning strength in natural gas futures despite the corrective action in crude oil and its derivatives.

Today, we’re going to outline a few developing setups with a focus on ags.

Let’s dive in!

First up are corn futures:

Are you noticing?

Energy stocks continue to push up against new highs.

The Integrated names, Oil Services, the Explorers & Producers.

They're all still at or near new 52-week highs.

The kicker? It's all happening with Crude Oil in the midst of a 26% drawdown:

This is the video recording of our April 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This is just too perfect.

Straight from the Monopoly Rule Book, written 90 years ago.

Who would have thought that our central bankers would be getting their inspiration from a board game?

And so what are the consequences of such shenanigans?

Well....

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The relentless outperformance from commodities and commodity-related assets shows no signs of slowing.

The CRB Index is up 27.03% year to date while the S&P 500 and the 30-year Treasury bond aren’t even in the ballpark, posting lackluster performances of  negative 4.95% and negative 6.25%, respectively.

Commodities are really the only game in town these days.

With that as our backdrop, we want to continue focusing on this asset class for buying opportunities.

As many of these contracts consolidate or correct following explosive upside moves, we’re paying extra attention to those that have been basing in recent months – such as natural gas. 

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a zoomed-out weekly chart of natural gas futures:

Commodities and rates are at the center of everything right now. And why wouldn't they be? That's where the trend is clear. That's where the momentum is! Keeping this trend in mind, one specific commodity will be highlighted in this post.

This is a commodity that has made it to our trade ideas several times in the recent past. After a minor consolidation, the price seems ready for the next move. What are we talking about?

Read on to know more.

The team over at Fox Business asked me to come on this week to talk about what I'm seeing in the market.

In this short clip, I talk to Charles about the Sentiment unwind that we've been seeing and whether or not it's got legs.

I think it does.

Here's the interview in full. I come in at the 9:35 mark.