Since early July stocks in India have come under more selling pressure, with the Mid-Caps and Small-Cap indices falling roughly 10% and the large-cap Nifty 50 falling about 6%.
This has exacerbated the relative underperformance of India versus other Emerging Markets which it had been outperforming up until late May.
Prices in many of the major indices are now approaching critical levels of support, begging the question will buyers will step in again to defend these levels or is more selling ahead?
When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.
While updating this Chartbooks this weekend there were a few stocks that we've spoken about in the past, but I wanted to follow up on given they're near actionable levels.
Several shorts, a few longs, and one to keep on your radar.
Last week I posted the mystery chartpicturedbelow to see what people were thinking once they removed the biases of knowing the security name, timeframe, or etc. and had only price to rely on.
Most people were on the same page as I am, thinking this is a structural trend change that we want to be buying, not selling. A few people were hesitant and wanted to see more before getting involved, but very few, if any, were sellers.
Every week I go through my chartbooks and think about what should be highlighted as our "Chart of The Week", something that speaks to a theme that people need to know about.
Sometimes I have trouble choosing just one chart, but this week it's a no brainer in my opinion.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
The Dow Transports are the talk of the town due to their lack of trend on an absolute basis and their underperformance relative to the Dow Industrials, so I want to take a quick look and see if there are any themes we can take advantage of within its subsectors.
The weakness in Consumer Goods we've been talking about since March and April continues, so today we want to look at a short opportunity in Godrej Consumer Products, which makes up roughly 5.50% of the Nifty Fast Moving Consumer Goods Index.
JC beat me to writing about Interest Rates this morning, but while I came to the same conclusion I wanted to add some additional perspective that shared on Real Vision this past Monday.
While that segment was about Mid-Cap Industrial stock Herman Miller Inc., a big part of that thesis is that we're seeing US Rates begin to stabilize.
The chart I want to share today is the Regional Banks/REITs ratio, which highlights an "Interest"-ing divergence between Equities and the Bond/Commodities markets.
From setting upside objectives to identifying areas of potential support and resistance, Fibonacci is a versatile tool.
As with any tool, there are times when it works better than others. And while we don't want to get into every intricate detail of how and where we use it, we did want to share a great example of Fibonacci in action.