In yesterday's Chart Summit, we presented our view on the major asset classes around the globe and noted what we need to see before getting bullish Equities again. (You can watch the full videos of all the presenters for free.)
Unfortunately, current conditions suggest continued volatility so we're looking for short setups to take advantage of it in the coming days/weeks.
Let's take a look at our broader thesis and what stocks and indexes we're shorting to express it in the market.
A question we're getting a lot these days is when the market ultimately does bottom, do we want to be buying the stocks that have been hit the most or the ones that have held up the best during the market's fall?
As with most things in markets and in life, the answer is it depends. In this post, we'll explain why.
With that said, if you're a trader taking advantage of this volatility then the following charts are those we'd watch to determine if the recent bounce can continue.
In this post, we want to step back and see what some of the longer-term weekly and monthly charts are suggesting for stocks and the other major asset classes.
Here's the Nifty 50 which spent the last two years grinding slightly higher as momentum diverged negatively. So far this year, prices have fallen 40% and retraced 38.2% of their entire 2001-2019 rally...in three months. From a risk management perspective, bulls need to see 8,000 hold in the Nifty 50 or there is further downside risk towards 6,200.
When markets go through periods of elevated volatility/stress, many market participants look to catch the exact bottom, but a better approach in our view is to buy on the way back up!
This week we've outlined what we need to see from breadth, the Nifty 50 & Bank Index, and Copper in order to get long Indian stocks from any sort of intermediate or long-term perspective.
Although we've not seen those developments yet, US Stocks (S&P 500) is back above its December lows and other foreign indexes have started to catch a bid in the near-term. This subtle improvement is suggesting some trade opportunities could develop on the long side for those who hold positions for a few days to a week or two.