Today, we want to revisit the sector to see what's changed and what stocks we want to be buying and selling.
First, let's start with the Nifty Pharma vs Nifty 500 ratio chart that continues to turn higher after meeting our downside objective late last year. This continues to suggest further outperformance from the Nifty Pharma sector relative to the broader market.
With that said, we were a bit cautious about buying the potential breakouts in USD/INR and JPY/INR until we got confirmation, but we've seen some solid follow-through over the last two days.
This post will outline how to approach getting involved in the trade if you're not already.
Today we wrote a post updating our market view, which is that we expect further chop but are looking to put cash to work slowly on the long side. In that post we outlined what we'd need to see to get aggressively long, so please check it out.
This post is going to outline several stocks that are presenting attractive reward/risk scenarios at current levels, so if you need long exposure this is where we want to be.
In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.
First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.
Today JC discussed our March playbook for Members and outlined some areas we'd be looking for a bounce with well-defined risk and others that we want to be completely avoiding.
I wanted to share a few breadth measures to provide context around the recent decline and see if they offer any clues around what's next.
There are some interesting moves happening in the Indian Rupee, so let's take a look and update our risk management levels and targets.
Here's the US Dollar/Indian Rupee pair on a longer-term basis. What's clear from the weekly chart is that our thesis remains intact. As long as prices are above 69, then the path of least resistance is still higher.
Let's take a look at what it means and what it's going to take for it to finally sustain new highs.
First, let's start with the Nifty IT Index on an absolute basis. Last week prices pushed above resistance near 16,500 to new all-time highs, but momentum diverged negatively and prices are now confirming a failed breakout...suggesting more time is needed to work through this overhead supply and continue its long-term trend to the upside.
The strongest Equity market in the world has been the US, however, last week prices started to confirm the weakness we were seeing under the surface since January. Today we wrote a brief piece on US market breadth which reinforces our view that defense remains the name of the game.
This follow-up is to make the point that if the strongest market in the world is catching down to weakness in the rest of the world, then India and other countries that have underperformed are likely to continue struggling in the near-term.
In fact, the breadth divergences we highlighted in the US are also playing out in India.