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The Good & Bad Of India's Pharma Sector

March 6, 2020

The current market environment remains choppy, so we want to revisit a sector that's showing relative strength, Pharma.

In November we pointed to the improving prospects of the Nifty Pharma Index and its components, following up with additional trades in January.

Today, we want to revisit the sector to see what's changed and what stocks we want to be buying and selling.

First, let's start with the Nifty Pharma vs Nifty 500 ratio chart that continues to turn higher after meeting our downside objective late last year. This continues to suggest further outperformance from the Nifty Pharma sector relative to the broader market.

Click on chart to enlarge view. 

Expect More Chop, But Be Prepared To Buy Stocks

March 4, 2020

In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.

First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.

Our First Downside Objectives In Stocks Have Been Hit

March 3, 2020

We've been pointing to weakness in Indian equities, and equities around the globe, since mid-January. Last week the global leader, United States equities, joined the correction party and quickly met our downside targets.

We've since flipped long US stocks and are now playing for a bounce.

Patience has paid in Indian stocks, so here's a quick update on our view now that our first downside objectives have been hit in the major indices.

What's Going With The Indian Rupee?

March 2, 2020

There are some interesting moves happening in the Indian Rupee, so let's take a look and update our risk management levels and targets.

Here's the US Dollar/Indian Rupee pair on a longer-term basis. What's clear from the weekly chart is that our thesis remains intact. As long as prices are above 69, then the path of least resistance is still higher.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Bulls Lack The Bandwidth To Push Nifty IT Higher

February 25, 2020

As stocks around the globe slump, we're seeing another failed breakout attempt in one of India's largest sectors.

Let's take a look at what it means and what it's going to take for it to finally sustain new highs.

First, let's start with the Nifty IT Index on an absolute basis. Last week prices pushed above resistance near 16,500 to new all-time highs, but momentum diverged negatively and prices are now confirming a failed breakout...suggesting more time is needed to work through this overhead supply and continue its long-term trend to the upside.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

US Stocks Catch Down To The Rest Of The Globe

February 24, 2020

We've been advocating for a more defensive approach towards Equities for most of the last month as the Large-Cap Indices failed to hold onto their new highs and have since reiterated that sentiment throughout February. (Feb. 3rd and Feb 18th)

The strongest Equity market in the world has been the US, however, last week prices started to confirm the weakness we were seeing under the surface since January. Today we wrote a brief piece on US market breadth which reinforces our view that defense remains the name of the game.

This follow-up is to make the point that if the strongest market in the world is catching down to weakness in the rest of the world, then India and other countries that have underperformed are likely to continue struggling in the near-term.

In fact, the breadth divergences we highlighted in the US are also playing out in India.

Let's take a look.