I've been a fan of Tony Dwyer's work for a long time. Those of you who know me see me approach the market from a top/down global macro and intermarket perspective. Tony starts his process in a similar way at Cannacord Genuity and Dwyerstrategy.com. When we're talking about the next direction for stocks, we both focus on other assets like credit to help identify big trends. We look at the behavior of commodity and currency markets to make decisions in equities. I thought this was a really fun conversation. I particularly enjoyed Tony's comparisons to 1995 and what was going on then with respect to the President's public issues, interest rates, precious metals and the US Dollar. This podcast could have gone on forever if we let it, but we kept it short and concise so we could get to the point quickly.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Wednesday morning I outlined the charts we were watching ahead of the Fed Decision and what we would need to see before getting out of the way and reevaluating our bullish Equities and US Interest Rates thesis.

Today I want to look at those same charts and note what's changed and how we're moving forward.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Today will be a "big" day for markets as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on the new target Federal Funds Rate.

Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp cut and a 20% chance of a 50bp cut. This means market participants have assigned 0% odds to rates remaining where they are after today's meeting.

We've been pretty clear over the last few months about where we stand regarding the different asset classes, so there's not much left to do other than wait and see how prices settle by the end of the week.

With that said, here are a few charts we're watching through Friday's close.

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

JC beat me to writing about Interest Rates this morning, but while I came to the same conclusion I wanted to add some additional perspective that shared on Real Vision this past Monday.

While that segment was about Mid-Cap Industrial stock Herman Miller Inc., a big part of that thesis is that we're seeing US Rates begin to stabilize.

The chart I want to share today is the Regional Banks/REITs ratio, which highlights an "Interest"-ing divergence between Equities and the Bond/Commodities markets.

I think there is a big move brewing in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market. US Interest Rates have gotten crushed along with rates all over the world. It's not just a U.S. thing, but a global phenomenon. 

Today we're updating our outlook for global markets and providing ideas to profit in the second half of 2019.

Part 1 of this playbook will provide our perspective on all four asset classes and update our views on the major themes within India that we're paying attention to.

Part 2 of this playbook will consist of our top individual stock trade ideas.

James Brodie started out auditing for Arthur Andersen and did not particularly enjoy it. In the early 1990s he started to learn about derivatives at the largest bank in the world before ultimately moving to Credit Suisse. He's lived in London, Singapore, New York and Tokyo trading currencies for both the banks and proprietary and then started his own hedge fund. James is also on the Board of the CMT Association. I really enjoyed the advice he gives about what he learned from 2 massive losses he's taken throughout his career. James is a big fan of behavioral finance and we talk about different studies where we've learned that the better traders actually have more losing trades than winning trades. Currently James is watching Gold, EURJPY and US Interest Rates and talks about how he wants to trade them. This was a fun conversation where we covered a lot of things.

This is one of my favorite things to do: Forget everything that happened in the first half of the year and start from scratch. It doesn't matter what we did or how we felt in early 2019. It's irrelevant. We're moving forward. This is my Q3 2019 Playbook.

There are a lot of interesting charts out there around the world. The current market environment has provided us with a ton of opportunities in multiple asset classes. We've talked about stocks, we discussed commodities, and today I want to focus on the Bond Market. Both Interest Rates and the most liquid exchange traded fund are at critical levels that we need to watch.