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Wow what a difference

April 2, 2024

Everything changed in February.

You started to see the cracks in January, but the big changes in market dynamics really got going in early- to mid-February.

And then March came, when everyone else saw it.

Look at the Sector Performance last month, for example.

Energy stocks were up double digits.

Technology stocks were DOWN.

Consumer Discretionary stocks were DOWN.

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Under The Hood (04-01-2024)

April 1, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended March 29, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

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Gold Solidifies the Breakout

April 1, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

People are asking me if gold's breakout is the real deal.

All I can do is smile, state my bullish outlook, and draw a line in the sand.

Of course, I can’t resist adding an obnoxious upside target or two (the higher, the better).

Hopefully, it sounds simple. That’s the goal! It never pays to overcomplicate price action…. 

If you’re still wondering whether precious metals are a viable investment despite gold’s new all-time highs, let’s identify the underlying trend…

[Options] Putting Time on Our Side

April 1, 2024

Steve Strazza brought up charts of the energy, materials, and commodities sectors on today's Flow Show. These are "peer indexes," meaning they often trend together.

And the current trends suggest we need to add more bullish positions in these areas.

The one name that stood out the most was Freeport McMoRan $FCX:

But given the run we've already seen here, we need to allow for the possibility of some digestion which may put a governor on the speed on any breakouts from here.

To position ourselves for this possibility, we're going to utilize a Call Calendar spread.

Here's the Play:

My Favorite Small-cap Trade for Q2

April 1, 2024

Small-caps are an interesting bunch.

When you add up the value of all the stocks in the Russell2000, it may as well be nothing.

There companies in the United States that alone are worth more than all 2000 companies combined.

I think it's important to put things in perspective.

These companies don't actually matter that much. Besides, they always kick out all their best players, by definition.

Inflation? Is this really it?

March 30, 2024

Gold just went out at a new all-time high. That's over $2250 for an ounce of Gold. The most ever.

And it shouldn't be that surprising really. Gold has already been making all-time highs priced in other currencies like Euro, Pounds, Yen and Rupee, among many others.

Now Gold is making new all-time highs priced in US Dollars as well.

Notice how Gold and Copper don't move in different directions for too long historically.

This isn't just a Gold thing. This is a metals thing.

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International Hall of Famers (03-29-2024)

March 29, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Mercado Libre and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Crude Oil Hits a 5-Month High

March 29, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Black Gold is breaking out!

Crude oil is flipping weeks of indecision into conviction following a hard retest that frustrated traders earlier this month. 

Let’s take a look…

Check out crude’s upside resolution to fresh five-month highs:

Yesterday marked the completion of a tight bull flag – a typical characteristic of an uptrend.

The path of least resistance points higher toward our 95 target. 

However, I would be remiss not to mention momentum. The 14-day RSI has yet to register an overbought reading above 70. 

This isn’t an immediate concern. But if the crude oil rally does have legs, momentum will reach overbought conditions. In fact, the energy sector's recent performance is showing no signs of stress.

The Oil Refiners ETF $CRAK...

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Junior International Hall of Famers (03-28-2024)

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view