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The New Highs List Keeps Growing

November 20, 2023

Technology as a sector just closed at a new all-time high.

In other words, half the Nasdaq's weighting is at a new high. In the S&P500, Tech represents close to 1/3 of the index.

Are you going to make the bet that the one on the bottom is not going to follow the one on top?

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Commodities Bring the Goods Despite Soaring Stocks

November 17, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are losing ground as money flows back into stocks and bonds in hopes of a Santa Claus rally.

Yet fresh strength in equities isn’t completely leaving commodities in the dust. In fact, numerous bullish developments are underway for raw materials.

Dr. Copper is working its way higher. Crude oil is refusing to throw in the towel despite increased selling pressure. And softs such as orange juice, cocoa, and sugar are flying toward fresh decade highs.

That doesn’t sound bearish to me, especially when considering new buying opportunities in the grain markets…

First, check out the stock-to-commodity ratio:

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The Hall of Famers (11-17-2023)

November 17, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

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Tracking a Bond Market Bounce

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.

Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!

It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…

The Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is coming off extreme oversold readings on the 14-day RSI, highlighted in the lower pane:

Over the past two years, oversold conditions at these levels have coincided with near-term bottoms for long-duration bonds.

Based on the chart, TLT looks poised for a mean-reverting rally.

Let’s zoom in…

Check out the daily chart carving out a potential six-week reversal formation:

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The Short Report (11-16-2023)

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

Making a Bearish Bet This Week

November 16, 2023

This is a raging Bull Market in stocks.

Seasonal strength is kicking in, right in time.

We'll be discussing this all on Monday night @ 6PM ET during our LIVE Conference Call. Premium Members can Register Here.

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. This cycle is clearly no different.

And breadth expansion reigns. Remember all these angry people telling you how Small-caps were going to drag the rest of the market lower?

It's actually been the exact opposite.

All of this is perfectly normal. Take the time to go back and see for yourself.

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The Dollar Bends Down Low

November 15, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar has gone from slinging cheese to lobbing cookies.

Sellers finally got ahold of the US Dollar Index $DXY on Tuesday, sending it on its steepest single-day decline since October 2022.

Recall what followed for the dollar…

The DXY formed a major top and fell victim to not one but two subsequent 1 percent-plus daily drawdowns. 

Check out the DXY chart with the one-day rate-of-change in the upper pane:

The DXY dropped almost 1.5% during Tuesday's session. That’s a huge move for a currency (with the exception of the Turkish lira and perhaps the Polish zloty).

[Options] Lilting Lillies

November 15, 2023

Today, a "darling" company in the media thanks to new obesity drugs and other good news hitting the media airwaves is selling off. In fact, its having its worst day relative to its sector peers in many years.

Someone forgot to tell Eli Lilly $LLY that a new bull market run may recently have gotten under way. Of course, it was already way ahead of the game. In fact, look at this long-term chart:

These aren't usually the trends I like to take the other side of.

But perhaps it's gone on a little too long and it's ready to pause and retrace?

This stock could get cut in half and the long-term trend would still be intact.

When we zoom in a little closer, we see a very notable (and sizeable) gap from this summer where the stock jumped from $450 per share to north of $500 per share overnight:

This is just the beginning....

November 15, 2023

This is the best time of the year for stocks.

And stocks are doing very well.

In other words, perfectly normal market behavior.

In fact, this is exactly when Small-caps historically start to outperform their large-cap counterparts.

And sure enough, that's exactly what we're seeing.

Here's a great chart from Jeff Hirsch and Jay Kaeppel showing these seasonal tendencies:

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Silver Must Join the Party

November 14, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Miami is pure gold.

It sways to its own beat, enticing and intoxicating even the insular traveler.

Incidentally, I was engulfed by the city’s rhythm as I attended a family wedding last weekend.

And it was wild!

I danced with family and friends and sipped bubbles at sunset in Key Biscayne straight through to the early morning hours along South Beach.

But this old dog would never have made it to dawn without my wife’s crazy cousins. 

They displayed an appetite for reckless abandon that gold longs to witness from its own crazy cousin…