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[Options] Putting Time on Our Side

April 1, 2024

Steve Strazza brought up charts of the energy, materials, and commodities sectors on today's Flow Show. These are "peer indexes," meaning they often trend together.

And the current trends suggest we need to add more bullish positions in these areas.

The one name that stood out the most was Freeport McMoRan $FCX:

My Favorite Small-cap Trade for Q2

April 1, 2024

Small-caps are an interesting bunch.

When you add up the value of all the stocks in the Russell2000, it may as well be nothing.

There companies in the United States that alone are worth more than all 2000 companies combined.

I think it's important to put things in perspective.

These companies don't actually matter that much. Besides, they always kick out all their best players, by definition.

Inflation? Is this really it?

March 30, 2024

Gold just went out at a new all-time high. That's over $2250 for an ounce of Gold. The most ever.

And it shouldn't be that surprising really. Gold has already been making all-time highs priced in other currencies like Euro, Pounds, Yen and Rupee, among many others.

Now Gold is making new all-time highs priced in US Dollars as well.

Notice how Gold and Copper don't move in different directions for too long historically.

This isn't just a Gold thing. This is a metals thing.

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International Hall of Famers (03-29-2024)

March 29, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Mercado Libre and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Crude Oil Hits a 5-Month High

March 29, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Black Gold is breaking out!

Crude oil is flipping weeks of indecision into conviction following a hard retest that frustrated traders earlier this month. 

Let’s take a look…

Check out crude’s upside resolution to fresh five-month highs:

Yesterday marked the completion of a tight bull flag – a typical characteristic of an uptrend.

The path of least resistance points higher toward our 95 target. 

However, I would be remiss not to mention momentum. The 14-day RSI has yet to register an overbought reading above 70. 

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Junior International Hall of Famers (03-28-2024)

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

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Freshly Squeezed (3/28/24)

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week, we released a Freshly Squeezed report detailing long setups in some of the market's most heavily shorted stocks.

This week, we got fresh short sale data from FINRA as well as fresh breakouts from a growing list of stocks in our universe.

We thought it would be irresponsible not to do a follow-up report covering them.

This is just the environment we're in.

Here's what we're doing about it.

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with the highest short positions. When a stock is heavily shorted, incremental buyers are waiting in the wings to close out their bearish bets.

We love this, as new buyers are the one true catalyst for higher prices.

When shorts are proven wrong, they become buyers of the stock. Many times, as this happens, momentum comes into these names and fuels massive short-covering rallies.

For this reason, we pair short-interest data with short-term momentum overlays, as this combination is needed to spark the moves we’re looking for.

Materials Break Out

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

A major theme we've witnessed in recent weeks is a shift in leadership as sector rotation continues to spread across the US equity market.

One could argue it is more a general broadening of the rally than it is rotation.

Regardless, one of the major beneficiaries has been Materials.

With commodity markets getting back in gear, industry groups from copper and steel to agricultural inputs are showing strength again.

With broad participation beneath the surface, this is a group we want to be adding long exposure too in the coming days and weeks.

Back when I was a Gold bug...

March 28, 2024

In the early stages of my Wall Street career, it was cool being a Gold Bug.

All my heroes were Gold bugs.

I learned in the early 2000s that pricing assets in Gold helped put market trends into context.

The Dow/Gold ratio was the ultimate Gold Bug Chart at the time.

You can see the Dow/Gold ratio here plotted in black, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Avg itself overlaid in green.

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2 to 100 Club (03-27-2024)

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.