From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The media is showering gold and precious metals with attention.

I get it. New all-time highs capture eyes. 

But you can’t leave copper and base metals out of the story…

Copper is ripping to its highest level in almost two years, posting a 15% year-to-date gain:

For perspective, the S&P 500 is up less than 5% since January 1.

Our next profit target of roughly 4.85 is now in focus. A decisive break above this new objective sends copper toward new all-time highs and the psychologically important five-dollar level.  

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

2024 is far from being like 2023. 

While we’ve experienced some healthy sector rotation, the first quarter was characterized by waning momentum.

With these long-standing momentum divergences in place, so far, the second quarter has been characterized by selling pressure. 

Since last week, we’ve seen an increasing number of these divergences confirmed by price. 

Making matters worse is where this downside is taking place. We're also seeing a growing list of indexes and sectors lose key former highs.

Until the bulls can reclaim these polarity zones, markets will remain messy. 

Let’s talk about some of them.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

You can now add the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the list of indexes that are DOWN for the year so far.

I've argued many times that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important stock market index.

And while I'm not going to get into all the reasons again today, I'll just show you the chart of the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 60 years.

They move together...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Failed breakouts and trading ranges dominate the charts.

It’s a mixed-up, messy market environment wherever you look — bonds, stocks, commodities, forex…

US treasuries are a prime example, playing it cool with muted volatility and tight credit spreads while yields climb.

Perhaps the near-term rise in rates makes it difficult to grasp, but the US benchmark yield is actually chopping within a broader corrective phase.

Before we dive into the charts, I want to make two things clear: 

One, I am not an Elliottician or an Elliott Wave specialist on any level. And two, if you give five Elliotticians the same chart, you’re likely to get five different wave counts.

Nevertheless, my journey to earning the CMT designation exposed me to the Elliott Theory, and I find it prudent when examining the US 10-year yield.

So here we go…

Stock market volatility is at the highest levels since October.

The majority of stocks are NOT in uptrends.

This market is NOT like it was last year.

In fact, coming into today, the majority of stocks on the NYSE are down for the year. Also 2/3rds of the stocks on the Nasdaq are negative for the year.

Go and count for yourself.

You'll quickly see that the majority of stocks in the Large-cap Nasdaq100 are down this year. Same for the Small-cap Russell2000 Index and the S&P Mid-cap 400.

Different markets call for different strategies.

Here's the $VIX hitting levels this week not seen since Halloween:

This is the video recording of the April 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

But we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

This market is just NOT like it was in 2023.

It's much different.

I've said it right here hundreds of time already.

But today's chart of the day really shows this well, reiterating why it's so important to adapt to changing markets.

Here is the S&P500 with a line plotted below it. This line represents the percentage of stocks in the index that are in longer-term uptrends, but are NOT in short- to intermediate-term uptrends.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed these trends driving the markets?

Commodities are ripping. The energy sector is outperforming. Interest rates are climbing while US treasury bonds fall apart…  

Of course, we can’t forget about the US dollar’s rally.

I continue to err in the direction of these underlying trends. But the dollar rally will likely run out of gas soon…

Check out the US Dollar Index $DXY printing its highest level since November. 

Gold is one of the biggest winners so far in 2024.

But you can argue that it's really the commodities complex that is leading, and Gold is just one of them.

Check out the YTD returns here.

But the unwind in Gold stocks relative to other types of stocks looks to be just getting going.

Here is the Gold Bugs Index, which is loaded with all the top mining stocks, compared to the S&P500.

Notice the dramatic underperformance for so long, followed by a failed breakdown, and now the squeeze is just getting started:

I have three big ideas to take advantage of the current markets.

It's pretty obvious to everyone now that this year is not like last year.

Some people are pretending it still is.

You are welcome to lie to yourself if you'd like.

But I have the data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat so far in 2024. Small-caps are actually still down.

It's Crude Oil, Silver, Gold and Copper leading the way: