We've been bullish precious metals since the 4th quarter last year and even coming into 2019. We're not gold bugs, thank goodness. The risk vs reward was just skewed in favor of the long side, for a variety of reasons.
One of those was the fact that commercial hedgers were actually net long. They're never net long, and literally always hedged. For me, these Commitment of Traders reports are usually just noise, EXCEPT when they're at extremes. We want to pay attention when the rubber-band is stretched. And so we did, and Gold ripped!
Now we have the opposite scenario. Commercial Hedgers last month had on their largest net short position in history (345,145 contracts):
Think about how well everything is going this year! The S&P500 is up almost 20%. Bonds are up 22% and even Gold is up 17%! Heck Bitcoin has more than doubled! Can things get any better than this???
How are you liking the day to day swings in the market? Is it too much for you? Go through this checklist and make sure these questions are answered before moving forward.
Today, I thought it would add value to take a step back and see what's happening in the market bigger picture. They love distracting you with noisy headlines, but the way we approach it is: Whenever In Doubt, Zoom Out!
Here's how we see things in Stocks bigger picture:
Stocks are still trying to break out of this massive range since early 2018. After some selling early this week, the range is still intact. I think this chart of the Global 100 Index tells the story best:
This is a question I get a lot from friends and family or someone I just met that knows what I do for work.
What's funny is that they don't ask it quite like that. They won't ask, "JC how do I make money in the market?", even though that's what they really mean to say. It's usually more like, "Which pot stock do I buy?" or "Which Crypto Currency should I buy?", depending on where we are in the cycle. It's rarely an IF, and more of a Which One?
The way I see it, you can add the same amount of money every month for decades and just let it compound. If you're disciplined enough to do it (most of you aren't), I can see a good case for that strategy. But if you're looking to get into more specific trades or investments, I think a well-defined risk vs reward strategy is the only way to profit. If you can't manage risk responsibly you'll be gone soon.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
The TSX Composite Index is attempting to hold above its 2018 highs after breaking out earlier this month.
In early August we wrote a Canada Update for Premium Members outlining ideas (and another post 2 weeks ago), many of which are working well, however, we're following up on this post today with a stock on our watchlist that's become actionable.
Nothing will frustrate stock market bears more than European Stocks breaking out to new all-time highs!
Do you know anyone who has anything positive to say about European Equities? Are conversations you're having and articles you're reading preaching strength and growth out of this area? I don't.
Prices, however, are telling a different story! Let me point you to the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund, which prices European stocks in local currency. This is similar to the $DXJ vs $EWJ Funds in Japan.
The way I see it, this looks like a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend and most likely the beginning of a NEW uptrend, and not near the end of an old one:
Stocks in the U.S. Financials Sector have been underperforming since the beginning of 2018. If you recall, that is precisely when the majority of stocks around the world stopped going up. It's been a sideways grind for many stocks and sectors since then and a solid downtrend for many more, like small-caps, emerging markets and certainly financials, particularly on a relative basis.
A funny thing happened last week, however, while the gossip columns were filled with impeachment talk and upcoming recessions: Financials broke out to new multi-month highs relative to the S&P500. But not a whisper about it anywhere. I like that!
It's that time again where we start heading into the next monthly expiration cycle and I review any options positions that remain open which might require some adjustments, monitoring, or closing before we get too close to expiration.
The October expiration cycle has been good to us. At the time of this writing, I've already closed two positions that hit my stop loss levels ($NKE, $DE), and two others that hit my profit objective ($GLD bull call spread, $PHM bull calendar spread). And as usual, the bulk of profits for this cycle came from just a couple trades.
These are the remaining open October positions that need some monitoring:
