Assets in the strongest uptrends not only do well on an absolute basis, they tend to outperform relative to their alternatives as well. In the case of the S&P500, with new all-time highs last month, we've just seen lower highs relative to both Gold and US Treasury Bonds. This is NOT evidence of a strong uptrend.
The question today seems clear to me: Is the underperformance of stocks relative to other assets "The Divergence" that we'll point to in the future as the heads up that something was changing? Or will we get relative rotation back into equities and this was just a temporary blip while stocks consolidated their massive 2016-2017 gains?
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about US Small-caps and the underperformance we've seen out of anything non-large-cap since 2018. We are now down to levels not seen since early 2016 when Small-caps started their outperformance vs Large-caps, which is where stocks bottomed after the 2015 cyclical bear market. Is this where the turn begins? Let's walk through it together and see if we can figure it out!
Here is the video from my BNN Bloomberg interview this week. They asked me if I thought the media was making too big of a deal out of an inversion of the yield curve and I agreed that of course they did. That's what the media does, irresponsibly exaggerate things that don't need to be exaggerated at the expense of their audience. I'm happy to come on TV to bring some sense of reality to the conversation. Someone has to. In this video we discuss the ongoing Cyclical Bear Market in stocks and what we're waiting for to confirm that a new Cyclical Bull is getting started.
What is the best chart in the world right now? I don't know. I guess that really depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and overall market goals. These are different for all of us.
Today, I want to share what I think are collectively the 120 best charts. The way I see, there is no ONE chart that can tell today's story. But as a unit, these 120 slides give us a good look at the current market environment.
Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.
I received a lot of answers, but I'd say 1/3 of you were buying a breakout, 1/3 were fading this strength, and the last 1/3 were yawning and off to find something more exciting.
Last night was our Members-Only Conference Call where we discussed the major themes we're seeing across asset classes.
A big theme was the lack of direction within Equities and last month's failed breakout to new highs in the US as we "catch down" to some of the weakness we're seeing globally.
As a result, today I want to revisit an exercise I performed in late May when the environment was pretty similar to today...and that was to look for stocks with "big bases."
Todd Sohn is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the markets. He often sends me charts that no one else is looking at and points out important data that most people aren't talking about. His unique perspective on the market definitely makes him stand out from the rest. Todd and his team at Strategas do great work and it's a real pleasure to have him on the podcast. In this conversation we discuss the current environment for US Stocks, Interest Rates, Precious Metals and the sentiment driving current trends. He offers good advice for both new technicians and seasoned veterans. If you're at all interested in the market, this is an episode you can't miss. Enjoy!
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the underperformance of European Stocks and the fact that it's their weighting in Financials that is, in part, dragging them lower. This has really become an interest rate story as Financials around the world are keeping other countries' markets from breaking out. The overwhelming exposure to Technology continues to keep the US winning relative to everyone else.
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday August 13th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call:
