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Commodities Weekly (03-12-2021)

March 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

In this week’s Commodity Report, we saw a continuance of many of the same themes that we've been pounding the table on for months now.

Mainly, strength in the procyclical areas of the market like Energy and Base Metals. This fits with what we’re seeing in Equity Markets as the rotation out of Mega-cap growth and into more cyclical sectors takes hold.

However, Crude Oil and Copper aren’t the only Commodities catching a bid right now. We’re also seeing strength in the grain markets. 

One of the charts that caught our attention this week was Palm Oil Futures.

Palm Oil is one of the most important Commodities in Asia and combined with Soybean Oil it accounts for roughly 63% of the global production of vegetable oils. Its uses vary from cooking and producing processed foods to personal care products like soaps and fragrances. It also plays a key role as feedstock for biofuel production.

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2 to 100 Club (03-10-2021)

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Mystery Chart (03-10-2021)

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that's captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it's an absolute price chart, other times it's on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren't able to recognize what's in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision...

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

[Options] Feed the Ducks in Biotech

March 10, 2021

The Biotech space has seen a lot of price action in both directions over the past several months. As such, there is no surprise that options premiums in that corner of the market have become a bit elevated.

There's a setup I've spotted that offers us a good opportunity to fade these premiums as the sector pauses to digest recent activity.

The Deal With Debt Markets

March 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week's mystery chart was a popular one, so we inverted it to make things a bit more challenging. Someone still guessed it... Nice work.

It was the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. The issue with inverting Bond charts is that when you do they look identical to yields. In the case of IEF, we're basically dealing with the US 10-Year Yield $TNX.

Rising rates has been one of the main themes early this year as developed market yields have accelerated higher and hit the pockets of bond investors all over the world.

In this post, we'll check in on some of the most important and most telling credit instruments on both absolute and relative terms in order to piece together the message the bond market is sending investors.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

March 9, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Sentiment shifts last week seemed more reflective of weakness in the headliners than the new weekly closing highs in the equal-weight S&P 500. This is a healthy development, especially for active investors who are seeing the market coalesce around a new leadership group while optimism comes off a boil. For passive investors, the pain of loss is more acute. This risk for the market overall is that diminished optimism morphs into more meaningful pessimism and breadth digestion turns to sustained deterioration. We have not seen that. Even as options data shows more concern and weekly sentiment surveys turn more neutral, fund flows continue to display optimism. When this reverses, risks are likely to rise. From a strategic positioning perspective, risks are elevated and passive investors may just be starting to feel uncomfortable.

Sentiment Chart of the Week: XLE/XLK Ratio

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (03-09-2021)

March 9, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Rotation into value is dominating the narrative right now as money continues to pour out of the former leaders and into long-term secular laggards like Financials and Energy.

In line with this trend, we continue to focus less on US Large-Caps and Growth, and instead look for opportunities in SMIDs, Cyclicals, and International stocks.

Add To Growth? Or Dump It?

March 9, 2021

So here's the question, with the inevitable mean reversion for growth and tech, will you take that opportunity to lighten up on any growth & tech you have left to buy more value?

Or will you double down on the growth and ignore value stocks?

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Young Aristocrats (March 2021)

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.

Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are “stocks that pay you to make money”. Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

[Podcast] The Bitcoin Episode w/ Greg King, Founder & CEO of OSPREY Funds

March 8, 2021

Bitcoin is a market that we are very fond of here at Allstarcharts. You've heard me say it plenty: it's a beautiful case study for Technical Analysis.

It's not a company. There are no fundamentals.

And you guys have watched us analyze the behavior of Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies since early 2016.

It's been pretty amazing to watch and participate in a new market like this. They were telling us we were late to the party back then. They're still saying the same thing now.

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Under The Hood (03-08-2021)

March 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ending March 5, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.

In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.