We've already got some exposure on the books in the financials sector, but with participation broadening, there are additional opportunities to participate.
And one opportunity in particular offers an opportunity to really leverage into a big win if we get it right.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
In today's post, we’ll discuss some of our favorite and most important intermarket ratios and see what they’re suggesting for markets and risk appetite around the globe.
One thing we found interesting when digging through these charts is that many of them look a lot like stocks do right now.
Sideways. Range-bound. Messy. But, within the context of underlying uptrends.
So these are basically just continuation patterns on shorter timeframes.
But, after consolidating for months and even quarters now, we are beginning to see some resolve higher… kind of like we’re seeing from stocks on an absolute basis.
Coincidence? Probably not.
We think this makes a lot of sense and bodes well for risk assets. Let’s take a look at some of these charts now.
Here’s one of the most important cross-asset ratios we track, and it’s a great example of exactly what we’re talking about.
JC has a short post up today about "The Oil Dilemma." He and I talked about this situation yesterday and I like the way it is setting up for a little premium collection to complement an existing position we have on the books.
The latest Follow the Flow report is out, and as always there is a play therein that caught my attention.
It's a bullish idea, but I'm going to play this one in a unique way in order to hedge myself a bit in a tape that feels a little sluggish at the moment. I want to get paid to wait out the slow times we're likely to "enjoy" from now until Labor Day weekend, and possibly beyond. So this will involve a calendar spread, but with a twist...
As always, there are a number of interesting investment ideas in the latest 2-to-100 Report published this week.
The one that most caught my eye has seen a recent collapse in options volatility resulting in cheap calls for us to play for an extended breakout. Cheap calls on stocks printing all-time highs are my absolute favorite play to make. So as you can imagine, I'm eager to jump right in.
There's a reason long-time investors are invested in low volatility household names that pay steady dividends: because over the long run, they work! The steady dividends and low volatility can be counted on to take care of us in retirement. This is a lesson I've been trying to teach my 7-year old Son. We created a small account for him and we're teaching him the power of investing in what you know (or in our case, in companies we spend money on as a family) and in companies that pay dividends which teaches the power of compounding.
One of those names we're invested in is also now showing up on All Star Charts momentum scans and may be set to accelerate its price price action.
Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of July. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all in accordance with the plans as laid out.
As we head towards August expiration, we only have one open position remaining with expiring August options. But July was certainly a busy month for exits -- both profitable and not -- as a couple of market whipsaws shook the trees and knocked us out of a bunch of positions.
Positions with August options that need monitoring:
As markets have gotten choppy lately, I've been on the hunt for more bearish and neutral trades to help balance out my predominantly long portfolio.
In this week's Follow the Flow report, Steve Strazza teed up a nice candidate for some downside exposure. The beauty is, the Options Gods are lining it up such that we can affordably take an aggressively bearish position that will pay off nicely if it works, while limiting our risk if we're wrong.
The team pumped out the Saturday Chartoons letter this weekend and as always, there were some nuggets of wisdom and ideas to be found therein.
The tone overall is: we're in a tricky spot here. There are some stocks going up, many stocks going down. But in sum, we're kinda stuck in the mud here for a little bit, it appears.
Of course, if this continues for a bit, then we'll want to keep our eyes out for more delta-neutral credit spreads to add to our portfolio.
There's one sector ETF that was specifically highlighted in this weekend's letter that fits the criteria I look for.
So Steve Strazza hit me up yesterday with: "Have you seen our latest 2-to-100 Club report? All of those stocks are breaking out!"
When Strazza gets giddy about price action, I take notice. Of course, I had to pull it up and scan the list. And sure enough, every one of those names is moving in the right direction. Some already moved so quickly that I'm going to hold off for a better possible entry point. But one of those names just triggered yesterday and is giving us a well-timed pullback today for us to get positioned.
In the recent All Star Charts monthly conference call, one of the themes that were repeated often was that stocks are in a "hot mess." In other words, many sectors are a bit stuck in the mud, offering very few signals or hints on the next direction. And when stocks aren't offering us many clues, the likely conclusion is that we'll go sideways for a while. It might be choppy, but the net result will be a whole big bowl of nothing.
With that in mind, it pays to look for opportunities to take advantage of stocks or ETFs that have somewhat elevated implied volatilities (meaning options are richly priced) and put on delta neutral credit spreads. We already did this earlier this week, and we're going to continue with another similar trade in a wildly different ETF.
