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Alfonso’s Daily Note

16 Years in the Making

November 21, 2024

Energy stocks have been showing some strength over the past few weeks.

Looking at the large-cap Energy Sector ETF $XLE, the price has been coiling around a key shelf of former highs for the past two years.

And when you zoom out on the chart like I’ve done, you’ll notice this base has been forming for the past 16 years!

Buyers have tested this level multiple times, steadily absorbing the overhead supply at the current level.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Textbook Retest in Healthcare

November 20, 2024

The big theme this week is textbook retests. We’re seeing this kind of price action across the board right now.

One that stands out is the large cap healthcare index. 

The healthcare sector is finding its footing after experiencing significant downside pressure in recent weeks.

Price is currently testing a critical level of former resistance marked by a shelf of prior cycle highs.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

BTC Is Back on Top

November 19, 2024

One effective way to identify relative strength is by charting one asset class against another.

This approach helps us position ourselves strategically for the current market environment—and right now, it's all about crypto.

Bitcoin is breaking out of a multi-year base relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Digital Payments Are Paying Off

November 18, 2024

This afternoon on Chart Request Live, my friend Patrick and I reviewed some of the standout tickers from the chat.

One group of stocks that really stood out was Digital Payments.

These stocks are on fire, offering favorable setups left and right these days, to the point I would be ashamed not to share some with you.

Before diving into some individual names, here's the Amplify Digital Payments ETF $IPAY:

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Banking on Strength

November 15, 2024

Yesterday I talked about some areas that are struggling to hold onto their post-election gains. The list has grown following today's selloff.

One group that’s been unfazed by this week’s volatility is financials.

Today, let’s flip the script and focus on an industry showing serious resilience.

Banks have been one of the best-performing groups over the past week, positioning themselves as leaders in the current environment.

The S&P Banks ETF $KBE is on the verge of completing a textbook reversal pattern relative to the S&P 500.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Metals Take a Back Seat for Now

November 14, 2024

A week after the election, stocks are now digesting some of their impressive gains. 

Some groups like banks, software, Ark funds, and even energy are holding up the best, while others struggle to hold onto those gains and are now giving it all back.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF $XME is a great example of this second group that is losing steam.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Breaking Out of the Block

November 12, 2024

fresh leg higher is currently underway as momentum picks up across the board.

This is especially true for the most speculative growth stocks. Whether you look at ARK funds, cloud computing, fintech or mobile payments, all these groups are reversing their trends and embarking on new uptrends.

When it comes to individual issues, no chart has my attention more than Block Inc $SQ right now.

Just look how clean this rounding bottom is, and it hasn't even broken out yet.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Solana’s Imminent Breakout

November 11, 2024

Bitcoin is surging toward $90,000.

Memecoins are ripping across the board. 

DOGE is up over 100% since the election.

BTC miners are squeezing higher.

Everyone is talking about shitcoins I’ve never heard of.

NFTs are back.

It’s all working in crypto land right now. As it turns out, the ultimate election trade was in digital assets, and not the traditional market.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Small-Caps on Fire

November 7, 2024

With the election behind us, markets seem ready for a year-end rally.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 Index led the way, climbing 6% as it registered its best daily performance since 2020.

As you can see, IJR jumped above its prior cycle highs from 2021, appearing, at least for now, to complete a massive base.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Market Poised for a Year-End Rally

November 5, 2024

Today is Election Day in the U.S., and while the spotlight is on the political arena, this is the perfect time to ignore the noise and focus on what really matters

When it comes to seasonality, some of the best signals that we get are when the market does not follow the historical pattern or seasonal trend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500's average monthly returns during election years.