I'm in the UK visiting my sister for a couple weeks, and I have to tell you—I love it here.
The vibes, the peace, and the sense of adventure just hit different. It never gets old to visit Europe. There are so many incredible places, rich with history and culture, all packed close together.
But for me, it's hard not to think about how these European indexes are moving lately.
They’re all ripping.
From the all-time highs in Germany and the UK to big structural trend reversals in Italy, Spain, and Greece, investors are embracing risk, and it's showing up across the board.
Unlike in the U.S., where tech dominates, these European indexes are built differently. They have a ton of financials, industrials, and even utilities. That’s just how it works here.
When it comes to inflation expectations, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities vs the US Treasury Bonds ratio is one of the best ways to measure it.
When investors anticipate rising prices for goods, they hedge by favoring TIPS over traditional bonds.
The TIP/IEF ratio is ripping to its highest level in almost three years.
It’s no coincidence that the Bloomberg Commodity Index $DJP looks just like it.
If we’re heading into another inflationary period, then commodities, energy, metals-related equities, natural resources, and international markets should be top of mind.
There are many ways to take advantage of this trend, and options are one of them.
We’ve been on it through Breakout Multiplier for a while now. Steve’s all over this move, and so am I.
Mega-cap growth has led the way for the past 15 years both in the U.S. and internationally.
One way to visualize this theme is by comparing the Dow to the Nasdaq.
The Dow leans toward blue-chip, value names, while the Nasdaq is packed with high-growth, tech-heavy stocks.
Right now, this relationship is at a critical inflection point as it tries to make a valid resolution to new record highs.
After breaking out above the dot-com bubble peak last year, the QQQ/DIA ratio hasn’t exactly ripped higher. Instead, it’s just hanging out above that key level.
If it rolls over and loses those former highs, it could signal a shift away from tech dominance. That’s where value and international markets might step in and take the leadership reins.
While many dismiss this theme, opportunities abroad have been stacking up.
A couple of days ago, I talked about three big reasons I’m long China.
Today, I want to go deeper into the overwhelming bearish sentiment around these stocks and why it could be the perfect catalyst for their next leg higher.
Whether it’s the doom-and-gloom headlines, distrust in the government, skepticism over earnings, or fears of an escalating trade war., the bottom line is— “these stocks are uninvestable.”
Just look at this chart. Short interest in the Large-Cap China ETF $FXI was recently at the highest level it's been in the last year and is still elevated today.
Investors around the world keep piling in on the short side.
When it comes to Canada, it's not about tariffs or political headlines making the rounds these days.
The real focus is the Canadian Dollar.
With nearly a 10% weighting in the Dollar Index $DXY, CAD is a crucial piece of the broader currency puzzle.
CAD/USD is pressing against a decade-long support zone, hovering around a key level that triggered strong reversals in 2016 and 2020.
What makes this even more significant is CAD’s close correlation with commodities—especially oil and metals—due to Canada’s heavy exposure to natural resources.
Just look at how the Canadian Dollar has historically traded alongside Crude Oil over the past years.
They look almost identical.
They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. If CAD/USD rips higher from here and buyers defend support around 0.68, we can expect energy stocks, metals, and...
Every year, without exception, there's always a new headline, a fresh "fear," or just another reason to sell.
Whether it's a new geopolitical tension, economic concerns, or the latest updates on DeepSeek and tariffs, there's always something that seems to provide something to “worry about.”
But here’s the truth. Investors have dealt with headlines like these for decades. It’s nothing new.
Our friend Ryan Detrick put together a great chart that perfectly illustrates this point.
If you get too caught up in the noise, it’s easy to fall into panic and lose sight of the bigger picture.
After all, the market is a discounting mechanism and is likely ahead of any headline.
The key is to block out the distractions and stick with your plan. Risk management, discipline and your rules.
Yesterday was unreal. We visited the NYSE with Jay Woods and got a full tour of the place.
Walking the trading floor during market hours was an incredible experience—watching the action and how things work, staying until the closing bell, and taking in that iconic moment firsthand. I’ll never forget it.
Afterward, we hung out and had some drinks right there on the floor. I feel like I just lived through the classic NYSE traders routine.
Then it was right back to work. We woke up this morning and hit it hard.
We just ended the first day of presentations, and everyone absolutely crushed it.
JC kicked things off with a state of the markets talking about sector rotation and why it is the lifeblood of a bull market.
We discussed a ton of ideas and finally made some trades.
Jason did a deep dive on Gold and Precious Metals.