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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Cyclical Bear Market

September 18, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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Commodities Weekly: Keep an Eye on Energy

September 17, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Risk assets have been getting hit for the past two weeks. Stocks have been under pressure, and commodities have been struggling.

Meanwhile, we never saw any real follow-through lower in the Dollar, as DXY has bounced right back to the upper bounds of its year-to-date range.

But, as usual, we continue to see pockets of strength in the commodities complex.

Last week, we wrote about the resilience from base metals, such as Steel, Nickel, and Aluminum.

More recently, we're seeing relative strength from the Energy complex. That's what we're going to talk about today...

Energy is actually the only sector that's positive over the trailing two weeks. And Energy futures haven't been looking too shabby, either.

Here's a bubble chart of all of our commodity subgroup indexes with their one-month return along the x-axis:...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

September 17, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In 2021, every month except April has seen the S&P 500 testing its 50-day average. Only after the initial test in February did the index fall further below that average than it is doing in September. The pattern so far this year has been tests of the 50-day that ultimately resolve higher. Whether that happens this time remains to be seen. With investors re-evaluating their bullish views on stocks, bond yields starting to rise and the action beneath the surface showing increasing vulnerability, we want to see evidence of upside resolution rather than just assuming it is on its way. 

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[Options Premium] AI Support for Semis

September 17, 2021

Another 20 year base breakout? This is the second one we're putting a trade on in this week! Maybe the market is trying to tell us something?

I have to be honest, when I first pulled this ticker up, I thought it was a Men's suits maker. But when I learned it's involved in the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors, the sex-factor went up for me.

Let's get right to it...

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Risky Business

September 16, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

In today's post, we’re going to do an update on some of our favorite and most essential intermarket indicators. We’ve also updated our risk checklist so we can discuss the changes that have occurred over the past week or so.

Are market participants embracing more or less risk these days? 

We’ll get there.

We've been obnoxious about our theme that this remains a messy environment for stocks, which is nothing but classic "year two" bull market behavior.

But guess what: That’s just what it is right now. You have to play the cards you’re dealt, and right now they’re not the best. This is particularly true for trend-followers like ourselves.

Let’s talk about why.

Our custom “Risk-On” and “Risk-Off” indexes have been a perfect illustration of the 2021 market environment.

This is what a hot mess looks like… and it’s true for both custom indexes as well as the ratio of the two!

These charts...

There's No Such Thing as a "Crypto Expert"

September 16, 2021

Crypto as an asset class can be very intimidating.

There's so much jargon and nomenclature thrown around, and the drivers of these tokens are very different from traditional markets.

And it's certainly not getting any simpler. There's a flourishing list of smart contract platforms, defi protocols, and other projects, all with their own objectives, purpose, and communities.

Whether you're a developer or a humble trader looking to lend and borrow in the world of defi, the market is becoming so oversaturated with all these protocols that it becomes downright daunting to even touch it.

But I think we can all take solace in the fact that no one is a complete expert in this stuff.

This isn't commodities or stocks where a group of oldtimers have decades of experience dealing with these markets. Crypto has been around for less than a decade, and in the case of the biggest names in the asset class today, less than a few years.

And even from a research and analysis perspective, up until this point, the entire industry of on-chain analytics was done by a select number of people. Only in the last 12-months has the industry started to pick up...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (09-16-2021)

September 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza 

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

In our RPP Report from the end of August, we discussed how the weakest areas were registering failed breakdowns and digging in at support.

In our most recent report, we focused on how the strongest areas were making fresh record highs. Things were looking up for the bulls... but that changed once again.

We've talked about how it's been a back and...