From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Dollar up… 

Everything else? 

Down.

Last Friday’s action sent flashbacks of 2022 across my screen.

It was all King Dollar last week as risk assets and bonds sold off in tandem.

But before we all get carried away talking about the next leg higher for the dollar, let’s zoom out to get a read on where the DXY truly stands…

In the middle of a short-term range.

The US Dollar Index $DXY finished last Friday, posting its best week since peaking in late September 2022.

But it’s been stuck between 105 and 101 since December:

The DXY might have gained 1.5% last week, but it’s stuck below a key retracement level. It’s a range-bound mess like much of the market despite the recent bout of strength. 

Sideways is the trend.

But what is the likelihood the trend will change in the coming weeks?

Monitor the EUR/USD if you want to know if we have a potential dollar rally on our hands. I believe the euro holds the...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filed by the co-founder and executive vice-president of DISH Network Corporation $DISH, James DeFranco.

DeFranco revealed a purchase of $18.5 million worth of DISH shares.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market awaits debt ceiling negotiations, and we have quite a few Fed speakers today as well.

We're still in a range, and time will tell which way we break.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended May 12, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them. 

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a behind the scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market was full speed ahead today.

And $SPY held on to the 410 support area once again...

The caution flag is flying.

Broad selling pressure is hitting the markets as gold, silver, and mining stocks slide.

Will the Fed hike? Will it cut? Or will it finally pause?

I have no idea, and nor does anyone else.

But gold’s crazy cousin has some definitive answers for precious metals bulls…

The caution flag is flying.

Broad selling pressure is hitting the markets as gold, silver, and mining stocks slide.

Will the Fed hike? Will it cut? Or will it finally pause?

I have no idea, and nor does anyone else.

But gold’s crazy cousin has some definitive answers for precious metals bulls…

The 24.75 level in silver marks the spot for the entire precious metals space.

Why?

Silver is the high-beta play. So if investors are pulling risk off the table, that key polarity zone in silver is most likely the first level to fall.

Last Wednesday, silver futures sliced through that critical level.

Note the bearish momentum divergence print on the 14-day RSI providing a poignant indication of waning strength. The bulls have stepped aside as the bears assume control. 

I have a neutral near-term bias for silver futures. Precious metals likely experience a range-bound choppy action as long as silver trades below the April pivot lows.

I will continue to focus on potential support levels, as I pointed out last week. It’s time to protect capital and recent gains.

Yet a few bright spots remain…

Despite...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

[9/28: updated our stop to $34]

I'm filing today's trade under the category of "Hard Trades." Not because it's particularly hard to execute or because it's a complicated multi-legged spread. It won't require an excessive amount of margin to get positioned nor is there any risk of unlimited losses.

It's hard because people might look at the trading action of the past few days and think that it's "gone too far" and "I should wait for a pullback."

And traders who think that way may be right.

But here's the thing: sometimes the best trades to get into are the best precisely because they are the "hardest" to pull the trigger on. And that's where our opportunity is. Those of us who fight through the conventional wisdom of average traders and get positioned ahead of the crowd will be lifted later on by those same traders who were "waiting for a pullback" and put an ever-rising bid underneath our stock that fuels our future gains.

Today's trade might be one of those setups.

This is what almost everyone I speak to tells me is going to happen.

They expect a failure up here in the S&P500, an inability to make new highs and instead, just an overwhelming rollover in stocks.

Here's what that looks like:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Coliseum Capital Management LLC.

The hedge fund reported a purchase worth roughly $3.4 million in ModivCare $MODV.