From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Here we go again… 

The USD/JPY is breaking out.

I can’t think of a stronger trend than the dollar-yen last year. It absolutely ripped to the point we were joking everything priced in yen looked good – even gold!

But it wasn’t the only market trending higher at the time. The US dollar and interest rates also rallied together.

Today’s USD/JPY strength raises a painful question for many investors…

Will interest rates and the US Dollar Index $DXY follow?

Before we delve into the broader implications of a USD/JPY rally, let’s outline the setup for those who trade forex markets.

Check out the dollar-yen reaching its highest level since November 2022, completing a six-month consolidation:

...

It's a bull market, in case you haven't heard.

As such, I'm on the hunt for alpha. I'm looking for stocks that might be off the radar, but can have outsized moves when the market runs.

Today's trade offers this potential in spades.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Dan Wilks, founder of ProFrac Holding Corp $ACDC.

Wilks revealed a purchase of 539,498 shares in ACDC, worth over $6 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices were pretty whippy yesterday.

I'd expect the same today until debt ceiling negotiations are completed.

The Technology Index made another new 52-week high on Monday.

This is becoming a habit.

Apple carries a huge weighting in that Index.

So as some people get distracted with how Apple's $2.75 Trillion market cap is now bigger than the entire Russell2000 Index, I'm more interested in how quickly Apple can get to $5 Trillion.

I think it can happen pretty soon.

Look at these massive moves in market cap that can happen in a relative short period of time.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The bears have found a new home: gold mining stocks.

Silver’s breakdown earlier this month raised the caution flag for the entire precious metals space. 

Less than two weeks later, gold futures and mining stocks are falling under the wrath of increased selling pressure. Precious metals bears are winning the battle as support levels fall to the wayside. 

Meanwhile, the bulls are reluctant to leave without a fight…

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market was all over the place today.

Look, we're waiting for the debt ceiling negotiations to end before the market makes its next move.

That's the deal... or no deal.

The bears have found a new home: gold mining stocks.

Silver’s breakdown earlier this month raised the caution flag for the entire precious metals space. 

Less than two weeks later, gold futures and mining stocks are falling under the wrath of increased selling pressure. Precious metals bears are winning the battle as support levels fall to the wayside. 

Meanwhile, the bulls are reluctant to leave without a fight…

Let’s review the recent action in mining stocks.

While I always prefer a price chart, I also like Grant’s moving average tables.

He measures the closing prices of all 30 components of the PHLX Gold and Silver Mining Index $XAU against (above or below) multiple moving averages, from five days at the far left of the table to 250 days at the far right.

This provides an excellent read on trends across multiple timeframes.

Here’s the table heading into the May 5 close:

A sea of green! Sellers hadn’t made their way to these mining names just yet.

Fast-forward a couple weeks, and the study presents a far different picture:

Red dominates the table across shorter time frames, displacing the...