The two major catalysts that will propel gold to new all-time highs are veering in different directions. 

US real yields are challenging fresh decade highs (not ideal for a gold rally) while the dollar is pressing against its year-to-date lows.

A breakdown in the US dollar index $DXY would no doubt send gold bugs dancing in the streets everywhere around the world.

I believe a weaker dollar remains critical to the next secular uptrend in Gold. But do real yields need to roll over as well? 

I’m leaning toward no. Here’s why…

First, a quick reminder as to why real yields represent a potential headwind for Gold: 

An inverted chart of the US 10y real rate looks almost identical to a chart of gold futures, as the inverse relationship between these two has been strong over the past 15 years.

So it stands to reason that rising rates would hinder any meaningful rally in Gold. 

And so far, they have. Gold has gone nowhere (down roughly 10%) as the 10y real yield has risen almost 300bps since March 2022. That’s not much of a decline considering the explosive increase in the real yield....

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a 13G filing by Mackenzie Financial Corporation.

The Canadian investment firm revealed an increase in its ownership stake in CAE Inc $CAE from 7.30% to 10.05%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Today we have a Fed speaker and tomorrow we have CPI.

$IWM is clearly trying for 190, and all's right with stocks.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under The Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 7, 2023. We publish this report on a bi-weekly basis, rotating it with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.  

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a mixed day overall, with Big Tech lagging.

$IWM was the clear leader and has potential to 190.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Daniel David Daniel III, director of Domo Inc $DOMO.

Daniel reported a purchase of 26,400 DOMO shares, equivalent to $357,580.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have a big week ahead of us, with quite a few Fed speakers and CPI.

$SPY and $QQQ reversed lower on Friday, and the oil services sector was on fire.

Question is, will it continue. I'll be watching some of these names.

[9/7: stop updated to 52. We already sold half our calls for profits at our target as mentioned below, so we're a guaranteed winner here!]

I'm traveling throughout Southeast Asia -- to eight different countries -- with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.

So for the rest of the month of July, I'm going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.

As such, here's the trade I'll be putting on today:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market ended the week on an up note.

Overall, the indices traded higher and names lifted.