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All Star Charts Gold Rush

What Does the Dollar Rally Mean for Gold?

September 25, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has posted its tenth week consecutive in the green. 

And with the dollar off to a solid start Monday morning, an eleventh looks promising.

This is excellent news for dollar bulls.

But it’s a gloomy prospect for risk assets, especially precious metals…

Check out the performance chart anchored from DXY’s July 13 bottom:

 

US stocks ($SPY), international stocks ($EFA), emerging market stocks ($EEM), gold ($GLD), silver ($SLV), and even US T-bonds ($TLT) are falling under a rising dollar. (Crude oil $USO has 99 problems, but the dollar ain’t one.)

Yes, US T-bonds remain a risk asset from a price perspective. A strengthening dollar will accompany declining bond prices if the US dollar and interest rates continue to climb together.

Global risk assets and precious metals do not perform well when investors flock to the US dollar.

Bonds are skidding lower. US stock indexes are breaking down. And precious metals? Well, it could be worse.

GLD is outperforming global equities, including the S&P 500, over the trailing two months.

Last week,...

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Silver Futures Defy Expectations

September 22, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets are adjusting to rising rates as investors weigh the possibility of “higher for longer.”

Bonds are breaking down to fresh lows. The major US stock market indexes are chopping within a range (perfectly normal from a seasonal and cyclical perspective). And commodities are kicking back into gear. 

All of these intermarket pieces fall neatly into a dynamic puzzle. Nothing appears out of place.

But the best information comes from markets presenting atypical behavior or defying expectations.

One commodity is doing just that as we head into the weekend...

Silver!

Did silver not get a copy of the FOMC press release? Or perhaps silver ignored it altogether… 

Silver should sell off as the 10-year yield hits a new sixteen-year high and the US dollar heads toward its...

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The Hall of Famers (09-22-2023)

September 22, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to new 52-...

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[Options Premium] Selling Premium in Qualcomm

September 22, 2023

The post-fed interest rates decision hangover this week has thrown stocks back into the sideways slop zone. Therefore, until conditions change, we're going to keep selling premium to ride this out.

Today's trade is a defined risk premium collection play that gets us out just before earnings.