From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Len Blavatnik.

Blavatnik reported a purchase of $14.9 million in Day One Biopharmaceuticals $DAWN.

Aren't we supposed to get a rally into the end of the year?

That's what the seasonal trends throughout history would suggest.

I mean, we got the seasonal strength earlier this year, as the Nasdaq put up the greatest first half to the year ever.

And then the typical Q3 Pre-election year weakness came, which could not have been more normal.

Now this is about the time where stocks get going into year end.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our September Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors navigate a market of stocks, not a “stock market.”

Equity indexes slide, and US treasuries collapse against a rapid rise in interest rates. Unfortunately for the bulls, the charts show no signs of an imminent change in these underlying trends. 

That’s the environment, and there’s no use fighting it.

Have no fear: We can still lean into market areas that enjoy a rising rate environment, mainly energy.

Here’s the US 30-year yield breaking to its highest level since the summer of ‘07:

Rising rates are the market’s golden thread.

Owning the stock market averages will prove difficult as long as yields press higher.

The same story applies to bonds, as rising yields directly equate to falling bond prices.

Check out the US 30-year bond futures flashing one sell signal after another:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Survey says… 

Buy commodities!

The multi-year secular uptrend in commodities remains intact on absolute and relative terms. Commodities are outperforming the S&P 500 and US Treasury bonds. And cattle, sugar, cocoa, and orange juice are all ripping.

While some of these explosive rallies pause, other areas of the commodity space are forming tactical reversal patterns.

Let’s check out one of my favorites,…

Corn.

Here’s the December corn contract carving out a ten-week base:

I bought yesterday’s close above 500’0. That’s our risk level. As long as corn trades above that level, I like it long toward the July high at approximately 570’0.

However, during today's session, I was abruptly stopped out of my position.

I’ll give December corn another shot in the coming weeks. But only if it’s trading above our risk level.

Commodities are working. I imagine corn futures and...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to new 52-week highs.

This leaves...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Well, every attempt I've made at wading back into the bull market pool has been swiftly met by a destabilizing splash made by a bear cannonballing off the diving board.

So, until further notice, I'm going to hang by the cabana sipping on my virgin daiquiri and waiting for calmer waters.

Meanwhile, I'm going to attempt to get paid while I wait by selling some delta-neutral premium in a (relatively) safer area of the market, as defined by a powerful bounce of recent lows in consumer staples.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Dan Wilks, founder of ProFrac Holding Corp $ACDC.

Wilks revealed a purchase of 603,478 shares in ACDC, worth over $5.4 million.

Did you think inflation was just going to come and go?

Just like that? And now we all move on?

I highly doubt that it's that simple.

According to the bond market, inflationary pressures are likely just getting started.

This is a $120 Trillion asset class that's so big there's just no where to hide.

For instance, take a look at the Inflation-protected Treasury Securities, that we refer to as TIPs. And when you compare them to nominal yielding Treasury Bonds, you'll notice the new 52-week highs this week in the ratio between the two.

This is what the bond market is pricing in for inflation. Not the angry economist on the internet. Not the pretty lady on basic cable.

This is the bond market. This is whose opinion actually matters: