There has been a lot of chatter about the outperformance from Health Care recently. One of the industry groups benefitting from this strength has certainly been Biotechs so we're going to dive into that space today and take a look under the hood.
This week's Mystery Chart is a long-term ratio chart of the Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB) relative to the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Thanks to everyone for participating. Responses were pretty mixed this week as the chart is at a bit of an inflection point as it tries to hammer out a bottom at key prior lows from 2007-08 and 2011.
Since most of our upside risk management levels have been broken, our broader short thesis is no longer valid. The short-term momentum remains to the upside, so let's talk about what sectors will benefit and the next logical target for the major indexes.
Chris Ciovacco is someone whose work I've followed for many years. His approach to markets is similar to mine, in that he incorporates a weight-of-the-evidence technical strategy. His open-mindedness and ability to set up multiple outcomes to prepare for, is one to be admired. In this episode, Chris walks through his thought process when analyzing the current environment. He makes a great comparison to early 2009 and asks whether we're in January '09, just before another severe decline in stocks, or in May, on the way up after already bottoming.
If you are caught between a rock and a hard place, you are in a difficult situation where you have to choose between two equally unpleasant courses of action.
In many Indian stocks that is exactly where many market participants find themselves.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
Interest Rates continue to stabilize in the US and globally, setting the stage for rotation into several beaten-down areas of the Equity market...particularly in small banks.
This was a risk to our near-term bearish thesis and suggests the major indexes could push marginally higher in the very short-term. And while we ultimately believe further weakness is ahead over the intermediate-term, we have to acknowledge and monitor this rotation under the surface to see how it develops.
Several stocks we're watching could benefit from this "dash for trash" trading environment taking place in the market. Not only are they attractive reward/risk opportunities on their own, but more importantly, how they perform will provide important information about risk appetite and the potential for the market to extend further to the upside. It's the same reason we were monitoring Autos and Media earlier in the month.
The Nifty IT Index remains subdued due to weakness in its largest components, like Tata Consultancy, but under the surface, there's been leaders like Info Edge (Naukri) trending well on an absolute or relative basis.
With that said, several charts are suggesting this leader may be transitioning into a laggard.
Let's take a look at the chart that sparked this thesis.
Below is a weekly chart of Info Edge (Naukri) relative to the Nifty Next 50. Since its breakout to new all-time highs in early 2014, we've seen the Fibonacci Extensions from its 2008-2009 base serve as solid support/resistance levels. Recently, prices hit our fourth upside objective at the 423.6% extension near 0.1056 and have not exceeded it yet.
It would seem that the "new" economy we live in -- one where we order everything online for fear of walking into stores -- would benefit the companies that provide the infrastructure and transportation to make that happen. Fundamentally, that makes sense. But we're chart readers here, and the charts are telling us something different.
