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[Options Premium] Fade to Black

May 13, 2022

Ok, so the market is bouncing and its offering a nice reprieve to those who've been caught on the wrong side of the recent slide. Does this mean the bottom is in?

It's far too early to tell. And that's not the bet we're making just yet. In fact, today's trade is to take advantage of a nice bounce in a name we're bearish in to position for a retest of recent lows.

So let's get right to it.

 

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AUD/JPY Calls in the Defense

May 12, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Defense wins championships. 

It’s important to remind ourselves of this as risk continues to come off the table.

The largest stocks in the world are losing critical support levels, and even the leaders are coming under pressure. Bonds are catching a defensive bid, credit spreads are as wide as they’ve been in years, and investors are fleeing to the dollar for safety.

Meanwhile, the classic risk barometer – the AUD/JPY – is breaking to fresh lows.

This all speaks of defensive positioning.

Here’s a daily chart of the AUD/JPY:

I Like This Secular Bull Market

May 12, 2022

Technically, not everything can underperform.

There are always some groups of stocks that are doing better than the others. Whether that means going up in price faster, or going down in price slower.

In some cases, like more recently, some stocks do well on an absolute basis well others lose value altogether.

This year we've seen the largest dispersion of returns among US Sectors in over 20 years. The difference in returns between Energy and some of the Growth areas like Communications or Tech have been historic across the board.

Here's Energy relative to Technology, as well as Energy relative to the overall market, as defined by the S&P500:

Market Levels to Track

May 12, 2022

Global markets have been in a mess for a while now. For some time there, India was displaying resilience when it came to the broader market indices. But that has changed over the past few days.

We have seen a selloff come through in the market and it is time to revisit the levels that could be crucial going forward.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Market Timing Is Hard

May 12, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Volatility is on the rise and some of the reactions we’re seeing are entirely predictable.

For instance, I’ve seen multiple versions of this chart shared in recent weeks:

It claims to show how hard it is to effectively time the market. Advisors and strategists use this to scare investors with a seemingly straightforward message: If you miss just a handful of the best days in the market, your returns will suffer.

All Star Charts Crypto

Cutting Through the Noise

May 12, 2022

It goes without saying the market's been carnage all week.

There's no shortage of noise out there.

So we want to keep it simple and share three key charts and the stories they're all conveying.

 

 

 

Crypto's Lehman Moment

May 12, 2022

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

This week has seen one of the largest blow-ups in crypto history.

I think the severity of the Luna collapse, in relative terms, can't be understated.

From trading at $100 a month ago to 2 cents today.

From being the 3rd largest coin in the asset class two weeks ago to currently testing support at zero.

From an 80% drawdown in a "stable" coin that's supposed to be pegged to $1 USD.

There's an incredible amount of wealth that's been lost in this blow-up.