During last week's Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts to drive Equities as an asset class higher over the intermediate/long-term, however, we continue to err on the cautious side given our outlook for sideways chop in the short-term.
Thursday I wrote about a growing number of potential "oopsies" (failed moves), so I want to follow up on that post and outline another group of charts that I think are suggesting short-term weakness in stocks.
If the US Dollar is falling, International Equities trading via US listed ETFs should outperform US Stocks. When the US Dollar is rising, International Equities should underperform US Stocks.
Sounds like a logical relationship, but as usual, it's not that simple.
During last week's Conference Call we discussed a lot of the potential catalysts for a lower US Dollar, so I wrote a free post talking about whether a weaker US Dollar means US stocks have to underperform International stocks. If you haven't read that, please do that first, because in this post I'm going to quickly touch on a short-term theme that continues to build within our Global ETF Ratio universe.
You probably thought this would be a piece about US stocks, didn't you?
While it certainly looks like the Christmas lows in the US are going to stick around for a while, the All Star Charts team is also detecting some broader potential breakouts overseas that we can participate in with options on index ETFs.
The Mystery Chart I posted Tuesday was a bit different because I told you what type of security it was and that it wasn't inverted. My objective with this chart was similar to what it always is, but more nuanced in that I was trying to get a feel for people's willingness to buy breakouts in stocks right now, or if there was any apprehension.
I received a ton of great responses via Twitter and email, so thank you for that. Let's get into those answers and the actual chart.
Do you live on the East coast and ever wonder what it would be like to be a trader on the West coast? Could you handle working on a much different schedule? In today's video, we chat with my pal Mehmet Gunay who I met during his time at SMB Capital when I lived in New York City. Today, he lives in San Francisco and seems to have adjusted pretty well to the time change and lifestyle. I would have to agree with him. I enjoy the west coast hours much better than when I lived in New York. The ability to do things after work with plenty of sun light left is very appealing.
We might be in a rangebound market for stocks, but one thing is for sure: the trend for Technical Analysis is up.
I've had a front row seat to the growth of this discipline and its practitioners for the past 15 years, since first starting my journey. I was half way through John Murphy's Technical Analysis of Financial Markets when I knew this was for me. Things only became more clear after that. As I read through Edwards & Magee and many other books, the way markets behaved just started making more and more sense.
When most of us think of bank stocks, we're generally not saying positive things. We have a bad taste in our mouth, particularly since early last year. But that's not the case in India.
Yesterday during our Members-Only Conference Call we discussed a lot of themes and trade ideas, but I wanted to highlight two charts that remain an issue for our bullish Equities thesis.
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir? ~ John Maynard Keynes
This quote has been on my mind as I am about to publish a trade idea that runs contrary to an existing position we're currently carrying. And if the Market Gods are smiling, we may be able to win on both of them!
