Do you see how stocks and gold can make new highs at the same time? Who said they couldn't? Why does it have to be one or the other? The current market environment is a great reminder of this. Don't forget it.
So? Should we expect Gold and Silver to keep going?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?
With earnings season in full swing, unique opportunities with options often spring up.
It's pretty common for the prices paid for options to increase leading up to earnings announcements. It's a classic example of the battle of fear and greed playing out. On one hand you've got nervous shareholders purchasing insurance to protect themselves from any serious adverse price action, bidding the prices of puts higher. On the other hand, you've got shark speculators looking to participate in a sharp reaction to make a quick buck in either direction, adding further buying pressure to both puts and calls.
The astute options participant can use this battle to leverage into his own vision of the big picture.
I don't make it my primary business to go against the trend. Sure, it can be pretty satisfying and certainly pays well to nail a turn in a major trend. But it's a tricky business that has left behind a graveyard of wannabe Heroes.
But every so often the stars align, risk is clearly defined, and supporting evidence suggests a turn may be at hand.
We've been watching some of the Energy ETFs we track most of this year for potential mean-reversion opportunities on the long side.
We recently discussed for our Institutional Clients an opportunity in the Small-Cap Energy ETF (PSCE), which rallied 17.50% from its 2018 lows before reversing back to those levels again.
The main issue in Energy remains that there appears to be an attractive mean reversion opportunity at the ETF level, but when we drill down into individual stocks there aren't many clean setups...making it difficult to identify what the main drivers of this move higher would be.
Let's take a look.
For the purpose of this exercise, we're going to look at Oil Services ETF (OIH) because its risk management level is the cleanest of the Energy subsectors.
JC and I are generally on the same page about a lot of things, but this week our brains seem to be very in sync as we're writing about the same topics with a slightly different spin on each subject.
The All Star Charts team has been drawing attention to financials and banks recently, putting forth the idea that the broader markets likely will not rally without banks participating:
We’re in the camp that Interest Rates in the US and Globally are set to mean-revert over the coming weeks and months, and if we’re right, that should benefit Equities as an asset class and Financials due to the rotation they’ve seen over the past several months.
And since we're believers that the market is going higher from here, logic dictates we should be looking for opportunities in the banks.
ASC published a piece on Regional Banks earlier in the week highlighting a handful of names to keep an eye on for upside should certain levels be pierced. Yesterday, we had our first name pop up and declare it may be ready.
With U.S. Large-cap Indexes breaking out to new all-time highs, many are wondering when, and if, the Small-caps are ever going to catch up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have all taken out former highs and are currently in uncharted territory. The Mid-caps, Small-caps and Micro-caps, however, are still all well below their 2018 highs.
While we like to pride ourselves in looking at more charts per week than almost anyone on earth, I get a lot of value from regularly speaking to clients and colleagues. Tuesday was one of those days that I found myself on the phone speaking with people around the world. One theme that came up multiple times was the underperformance in Small-cap stocks throughout the late 90s. It's something we've seen before. U.S. Large-cap stocks can do very very well even with small-caps underperforming, like they have since last year.