It's my favorite exercise each month. There is nothing else I do throughout my entire process that provides as much value as my Monthly Chart Review. Here's what stood out to me this month:
Let's start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:
Retail ETF XRT is at an interesting level, so in this post we're gonna take a look at its chart and what the internals are suggesting for the sector in the weeks/months ahead.
When I go through my charts, I see all kinds of different trends, patterns and consolidations around the world. It really depends on what I'm looking at. However, one area that has been a consistent outperformer is in Medical Device stocks. The way I see it, these are just Tech stocks stuck in the bodies of Healthcare names. So our theme of "bullish tech" makes sense, even though on paper they're Healthcare stocks.
Here is a chart of the Medical Device & Equipment Index $IHI relative to the S&P500. This one goes from the lower left to the upper right. We call those Uptrends:
That thesis was quickly proven wrong as global yields pulled the US down with them, and last week in our Conference Call we discussed our current outlook for Bonds and their many intermarket relationships.
Needless to say, we've been talking a lot about Bonds.
In this post, I'm going to take a simplified look at price action and momentum of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-Year Treasuries to assess the reward/risk and if there's a short-term trading opportunity at current levels.
We saw some late week strength in US Stocks for two consecutive weeks. When buyers have had the opportunity to buy stocks on weakness, have they shown up to do so? I would argue yes.
That doesn't mean that we're not below overhead supply in most sectors and indexes. There are a few exceptions but let's get right into it and see what's going on.
Since not a lot has changed at the TSX Composite or TSX 60 level, we want to take another look two months later to see what's developed under the surface and where there are opportunities to profit.
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday August 13th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call:
We're below former resistance levels in all of the major US Indexes. While structurally, longer-term uptrends are still intact, there is short-term risk of price volatility and/or opportunity cost. This is where establishing your time horizon is important. We laid out important levels from an intermediate-term horizon earlier this week. I think we're in for more of a sideways mess than anything else for now.
Historic breakouts are rarely clean. Go back and look at the early 80s. If we are to resolve this 18-month range in US Indexes higher, with European Stocks also breaking out, I'd argue it's a historic market event. If that happens, a bumpy start would not be anything we haven't seen before at other important points in the past.
With that in mind, let's take today to focus on where we stand in momentum.
As part of our Institutional Top 10 Charts report on February 21st, we wrote about why Litecoin was leading the Cryptocurrency regime change.
Several weeks later on April 3rd, we followed-up on that call by noting the improving price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum and suggesting a long-term bottom was likely in for the Crypto space.