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Massive Top In Consumer Discretionary

September 10, 2024

After Covid there was no sector that did better than Consumer Discretionary stocks.

Locking everyone down and sending them all a check to go spend, as it turns out, was great for the Consumer Discretionary sector. 

And then 2021 ended and the correction in Consumer began...

Years in the making, here is the massive top in Consumer Discretionary relative to the S&P500 that's got people talking...

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Head & Shoulders Top in Semiconductors

September 9, 2024

Did you hear about the massive top in Semiconductors?

Everyone is talking about it on the internets. So it must be true. 

Seems the easy call here to make is to say "that was it". The Semiconductor story and the bull market as we know it is over...'

One of the things they teach you in the first week of Technical Analysis kindergarten is that infamous Head & Shoulders top.

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The Minor Leaguers (09-09-2024)

September 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

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Not A Top In The 46th Element

September 9, 2024

Last month, we discussed the Palladium ETF $PALL hitting fresh 7-year lows, breaching a critical support level.

However, the bears could not gain any downside momentum, and it seems like we're nearing a cyclical trough.

Commercial hedgers have never carried a larger net-long position. Historically, it has been prudent to not bet against the smart money in commodities markets.

And one of our favorite long-term momentum indicators, the monthly MACD, has now given us a buy signal. That said, it's still a bit messy in the short term.

Let's talk about it.

 

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High Beta Stocks Break Down

September 7, 2024

High Beta outperforming Low Volatility stocks is usually something we see in healthy market environments.

This year, however, High Beta has been struggling to make any progress vs their Low Volatility counterparts.

"Beta" is essentially how volatile a stock is relative to its benchmark.

So High Beta think $SMCI, $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO and others. You have half the S&P500 High Beta Index in Technology and another 17% in Consumer Discretionary.

In contrast, for Low Volatility think Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Visa, Procter & Gamble. You'll find a lot of Financials, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Industrials in this group.

Here is the ratio of High Beta vs Low Volatility breaking down to the lowest levels all year.

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It's Natty Season

September 6, 2024

With fall approaching us, things are beginning to change.

The weather is perfect for golfing, the Kansas City Chiefs are back to dominating the NFL, and it's the best time of the year for Natural Gas futures.

In July, we outlined asymmetric risk/reward setups in Natural Gas futures and 4 natural gas stocks.

As we expected, it has taken some time for these setups to come to fruition. 

However, the cleanest fossil fuel has carved out a textbook reversal pattern and looks poised to blast off any day now.

Here's the average monthly performance for Natural Gas futures over the past 3 decades:

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The Hall of Famers (09-06-2024)

September 6, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Bonds Hit New Year-to-date Highs

September 6, 2024

With interest rates coming off and expectations for rate cuts on the rise, US Treasury Bonds are hitting the highest levels they've seen all year.

Look at the size of this base in the 7-10yr Bond ETF:

All the attention has been on the yield curve and how we're now officially getting back above the zero line.

This yield curve inversion has lasted longer than ever.

The "recession" was supposed to start when the yield curve originally inverted. 

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A Precious Short Squeeze

September 5, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Precious metals stocks have been ripping since Gold futures resolved a multi-decade accumulation pattern earlier this year.

But most of these stocks don't have much short interest...

We love to trade stocks with high short interest as there is a built in catalyst of forced buyers when the stock makes an upside move.

Today, we're outlining a trade for a precious metals stock with an extremely high days-to-cover ratio and short interest.

First, check out this long-term uptrend in A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK:

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Investors Are Rotating Into Safe Haven Assets

September 5, 2024

The stage is set for a strategic shift.

Since this summer, safe haven assets have been catching a bid and outperforming across the board.

Investors are paying attention to growth indicators like ISM and PMI data. Other investors are looking at CPI and paying extra-close attention to the Fed… 

Here's the US Core Inflation Rate along with the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. Since inflation peaked and rolled over in 2022, bonds have been building a massive base:

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Junior Hall of Famers (09-05-2024)

September 5, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.