This is the video recording of our October 7, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's been no denying the importance of the US dollar when it comes to evaluating risk appetite.

It's been clear -- the dollar has been the safe haven.

Not gold.

Not the yen.

Certainly not bonds.

When the dollar has been strong, crypto and equities have been pressured, and vice versa when the dollar's eased off.

Just look at the last few sessions of trading: The dollar sold off, and equities quickly got back above their June lows, putting in a failed breakdown.

In fact, it's not just the broad indices putting in these failed moves. There are ton of whipsaws out there this week.

One, in particular, that's caught our interest is gold.

After running the stops below this support level, gold finds itself back in the high time frame range.

Yesterday, we briefly addressed the precarious lack of volatility within crypto markets.

It's piqued our curiosity to see crypto volatility dampen while risk markets have continued to sell off in recent weeks. This comes as equities lost their June lows, where downside volatility looked poised to follow through.

But, this week, risk appetite has shown a completely different face.

The S&P 500 is back above the lows, putting in a failed breakdown.

What's more is that both Ethereum and Bitcoin have risen in conjunction with equities, supporting the case that the conditions for a countertrend rally have been set.

It's been impossible to ignore.

I'm sure you've noticed it.

Equity markets have been selling off hard, while Bitcoin and crypto have been flat.

The primary driver of Bitcoin and crypto price action, more generally, has been the tight trading correlation to legacy markets. In fact, the two have been trading tick-for-tick over the last year now.

So Bitcoin's volatility in the face of the recent risk-off action in equity markets has our attention.

But is this a new trend? Is Bitcoin finally going to decouple here, or is this just a temporary bout spurred on by unique conditions?

This is the video recording of our September 30, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

As technical analysts, we pride ourselves on never being dogmatic in our approach.

Always being open to a variety of scenarios will always be a virtue for market analysts and traders who put money to work. We constantly play devil's advocate, questioning whether elements of our macro thesis hold up to criticism.

An integral part of this objective approach is to have a predetermined list of data points that would invalidate our initial models and theses.

In the case of the current market environment, we're of the view that if Bitcoin's holding its prior cycle highs of 18,000 and the S&P 500 is defending its June lows, we don't want to be looking for short opportunities.

Instead, we're better served either focusing on names shaping up as potential long candidates while remaining patient until a more defined directional bias can be ascertained.

But what if we take the other side of this discussion?

What if Bitcoin loses 18,000?

What if there's more pain ahead?

How will we adapt?

Last week, we worded our letter in a rather dramatic fashion, arguing that Bitcoin was on the edge of the abyss.

Since then, we've seen equity markets make a decisive move to the lows, while currency markets have acted in spectacular fashion. The US dollar continues to strengthen, while the UK pound sterling printed at new all-time lows.

As far as risk markets are concerned, this is a rather treacherous tape, and caution is still advised over more substantial time frames.

Much of our job as technical analysts is to discover pieces that don't conform to the regular puzzle.

What's caught us by surprise is the resiliency of crypto markets in the face of this risk-off action. Bitcoin continues to defend its critical 18,000 support level even in the face of equity markets selling off.

Furthermore, our breadth metrics suggest that altcoins have been holding up better than individual equities.

Let's dive into this week's letter.

This is the video recording of our September 23, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's no denying our rather cautious approach to crypto markets as of late.

Bitcoin's hanging on by a thread. And the broader trend in risk markets has been lower, in a messy fashion.

So, given this backdrop, what's to be said about crypto-related equities?

Yesterday, we framed this market action in a rather dramatic tone, arguing that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are staring into the abyss.

With Bitcoin testing its year-to-date lows, there's little in the way preventing crypto assets from experiencing yet another significant leg down in the penultimate stages of this year.

So, alongside the commentary in yesterday's letter, we want to approach this market from two angles and let money flow dictate our execution.

Let's dive in.

Over the weekend, we've seen risk-off action persist following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

Following the Ethereum merge, most coins have sold off rather aggressively. Bitcoin now lies on a key level of support at its year-to-date lows, while a large number of altcoins have already made new lows.

For us to flip to a more bearish approach, we'd need to see Bitcoin confirm this internal weakness, which would manifest through a downward break of the 18,000 support band.

We were traveling this week and didn't hold our regular Crypto Friday Strategy Session on September 16, 2022. But we did prepare the usual chartbook.