There's no denying that we've been erring on the cautious side, even in the face of this recent strength.

While we have seen an expansion in new highs, the majority of coins find themselves right below overhead supply. The same can be said for the major averages, which have bounced nicely into tactical levels of resistance.

The primary trend is still down, and repairs after bear markets like these often take months and quarters, not weeks.

Having said that, we can never be dogmatic in our approach. If we don't account for new data as it comes in, we're no longer doing our job as technical analysts.

We often like to make Monday's letter a little more lengthy and detailed, but this week we're taking the opposite approach.

That is, we're outlining four simple developments that'd make us flip more on the bullish side.

Let's dive in.

This is the video recording of our July 29, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's been no getting away from it.

These last few months have been rather lackluster if you're a crypto trader.

But that's perfectly fine.

The market should never be your dopamine fix. The ability to sit on the sidelines for long periods of time -- as difficult as it may be -- is often the differentiating factor separating mediocre traders from good ones.

Even in the face of this recent strength, there's still not a whole lot to discuss.

Cryptocurrencies have completed multi-year distribution patterns and are now retesting their breakdown levels from the underside.

There are most definitely mean-reversion trade opportunities out there. But they're low-conviction, counter-trend in nature, and messy.

Meanwhile, Ethereum and many other names have bounced nicely back into supply zones following their respective rallies.

If this tape has reflected anything, it's to be very aggressive in taking any profits. This is particularly true considering the countless whipsaws we've seen over the recent months.

Bitcoin price action has been a slow grind higher over the last month, while Ethereum and other altcoins have posted notable gains.

This very much remains an environment where crypto capital markets are moving in lockstep with legacy markets.

The relationship between long-duration assets (growth stocks) and the US dollar remains integral to our macro crypto thesis.

We continue to maintain the view that the US dollar is the single biggest driver of risk assets and, by extension, cryptocurrencies.

Further USD weakness would be a tailwind, while a stronger dollar would place pressure on crypto.

This is the video recording of our July 29, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

And, just like that, any residual strength in crypto has once again dwindled.

Guys, we like to keep it honest and real with you.

At a certain point, we feel obnoxious about being so repetitive. But we're not going to tell you anything other than what's happening -- it's just our job as technicians to follow the money flow.

In yesterday's note, we outlined how we were taking a small, low-conviction long if Bitcoin $BTC was above 22,000. Just one day after we put the position on, Bitcoin's fallen back into its range:

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Last week, we advocated again for a patient approach.

We remain cautious about buying too heavily into short-term breakouts. This is a tape where whipsaws and fake-outs can be anticipated.

Many names find themselves firmly below overhead supply, and we expect any short-term strength to be aggressively sold into.

In the depths of this most recent drawdown, market participants were approaching their maximum pain thresholds. It makes sense that the market finds supply from holders looking to break even on their losses.

There are two ways to approach this tape from a trading perspective:

This is the video recording of our July 22, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

There's a common adage around here, a bit of advice to "draw your lines with crayons, not pens and pencils."

What it means is that when you're drawing support and resistance levels, it's best to construe them as zones rather than in terms of a single price.

It's a good rubric and a sound principle. But it makes sense to explore in greater detail why this is the case, particularly for cryptocurrency.

When it comes to this new asset class, technicals are a far more popular choice among traders and investors. It only makes sense in a market where there aren't nearly as many sophisticated fundamentals.

You're not going to discount a crypto project's cash flows to arrive at a valuation; you're going to trade the chart.

But, amid the growing popularity of technical analysis, proponents often don't recognize why price action principles work. There's far more to understand beyond drawing rectangles on charts.

Yesterday, we explained how we're still approaching this recent rally with a high degree of caution.

Most names still find themselves below overhead supply, and this is a tape where whipsaws and fake-outs are likely to continue.

Beyond Ethereum and a handful of other names, this rally hasn't been widespread. Instead, most cryptos are still exhibiting generally weak action.

While this means there are still actionable ideas out there from the long side, we want to explore a higher-conviction trade over more substantial time frames that'll likely be prone to fewer whipsaws.

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In recent months, we've argued in favor of a defensive approach.

Last week, we made our strategy rather clear with the following dialogue:

With the market providing extreme readings, these are conditions by which we can anticipate a mean-reversion rally higher. At the same time, trying to catch this move in a period of continual whipsaws will be difficult.

We think the better trade is to remain patient over the near term while dollar-cost averaging into long-term spot positions with a multi-year time frame.

Over the weekend, we've seen a sharp rally higher, driven by Ethereum $ETH.

This is the video recording of our July 15, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.