Crypto assets continue their uptrend, lead by Bitcoin which has made a fresh 52-week high. Ethereum has lagged on this most recent rally as Bitcoin heads closer to its former all time highs.
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Bulls are in control of the tape, both in legacy markets and in crypto. It seems the market has brushed off a number of potentially bearish data points in the context of a seasonally weak period, and have continued to stair step higher.
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Crypto markets continue to work their way higher, with Ethereum closing last week up +8% following a notable rally in weekend hours. The trend for crypto assets remains unequivocally higher, as we’ve alluded to in the past. As Nvidia beat earnings estimates, the equity market indexes have continued to rally higher, ignoring a number of bearish data points in the context of a seasonally weak period. It appears as if the bulls have full control of this tape.
it was a quiet day yesterday, with Bitcoin and Ethereum were flat today, while many smaller altcoins posted losses. This came after the ETFs saw their first set of outflows in a few weeks. Meanwhile, technology stocks marched higher off the back of Nvidia's positive earnings.
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The market closely monitored Nvidia's earnings as a crucial barometer for the growth factor that has propelled equity markets higher in recent months. While many mega-cap technology stocks, which Bitcoin is highly correlated with, have declined in recent weeks, Nvidia surged to new all-time highs in post-market trading.
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Ethereum eclipses 3,000 for the first time since April 2022.
Bitcoin order books are the most liquid since October, according to data from Kaiko.
Altcoin momentum is still not in frothy condition, with a mere 20% of our cryptocurrency universe registering overbought conditions.
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The dollar is still a significant theme to monitor in this tape; the correlations that exist between crypto markets and equities are still present. Risk markets have largely ignored this recent strength out of the greenback, but should the dollar continue creeping higher, it would place additional pressures on Bitcoin and crypto assets.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
We’re monitoring whether this recent momentum in ETHBTC can continue, which would be a sign that the Bitcoin leadership is coming to an end,
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have surpassed psychological levels of $50,000 and $3,000, respectively, following impressive rallies. Now, the risk versus reward scenario tilts towards the speculative end, as indicated by our breadth metrics, which highlight increasing activity within the altcoin space. Simultaneously, equity markets confront a challenging seasonal period amidst a backdrop of a strong dollar.
Ethereum seems to be following through on last week's momentum, with the ETHBTC ratio closing up +2.91% on Monday.
The Worldcoin token has seen an impressive, almost tripling as the platform surpassed 1 million daily users on its World App.
Ethereum staking deposits hit $85B, or 25% of the circulating supply.
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By all means, this is a Bitcoin-driven market, both in market returns and the prevailing narrative. Much of this has been centered around the recent Bitcoin spot ETFs, which for the first bring Bitcoin into the realm of traditional finance. But now, there are talks of a similar ETF for the second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum. Financial services firm Bernstein said Ethereum is "probably the only other digital asset likely to get a spot ETF approval by the SEC", giving an approval a 50% chance by May and a 100% chance by year's end.
Bitcoin's trend is unequivocally higher, with prices lingering around 50,000.
Last week saw the greatest net aggregate flow across all products, averaging just under half a billion dollars worth of inflows each day.
Microstrategy is up $4B on their Bitcoin bet.
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Open interest on Binance, the largest crypto derivatives marketplace, for both Bitcoin and Ethereum hit all time highs denominated in US dollars. As open interest rises, it points to growing attention from market participants in the derivatives market as new positions and contracts are continuously opened. As more positions are being opened, notable rises in open interest tends to proceed elevated volatility.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
The seasonal trend for equity markets, with which crypto is closely correlated, is entering a tumultuous few weeks.
In recent weeks, we've pointed to the strength in the flows supporting the crypto market. Nothing has changed, and the trend remains unequivocally higher.
Bitcoin continues working higher as equity markets failed to follow through on the weakness experienced earlier this week.
Coinbase rallies after posting its first quarterly profit in two years.
Genesis has been granted permission to sell $1.6B worth of its GBTC holdings. Outflows out of GBTC have lingered, while inflows into iShares's Bitcoin product recently topped $500M in a single day.
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Spot ETF inflows remain incredibly strong, with three consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $500M across all products. Traditional finance investors clearly have an appetite for Bitcoin.
So long as these inflows remain strong, it's an obvious tailwind behind Bitcoin's back.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
We're monitoring Ethereum futures markets as investors potentially begin pricing in the possibility of an Ethereum spot ETF. Open...
We didn't see any follow through on Tuesday's equity market sell-off. Bears need to continue to exert their dominance should that brief bout of selling become more meaningful over longer timeframes.
Bitcoin is steadily climbing, supported by strong spot ETF flows.
Chatter about the halvening is heating up. We're of the view this is mostly gossip and noise.
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We're always in a search for relative leaders, irrespective of the market environment. As Bitcoin has been progressing higher, Bitcoin's market-cap dominance has been rallying. This suggests that this recent market uptrend is largely a Bitcoin story; but there are still pockets of outperformance outside the major coins.
Helium $HNT is a great example. It's broken to new highs from this consolidation, and the uptrend is once again resuming higher.