All Eyes On Tech Today: They Won't Show You This On TV

August 28, 2024

All eyes on Technology today, with $NVDA reporting earnings later this afternoon.

But I'd like to add some different perspective than what you might here on twitter or perhaps on these basic cable networks that no one watches anymore.

There's a reason people keep coming to us for answers.

First of all, let's keep in mind where Technology even is relative to where it's been.

This underperformance we've seen from Large-cap Tech started as soon as it hit the March 2000 highs relative to the S&P500.

It took Technology over 24 years just to get back to where it was at the peak of the dot com bubble.

And that's where we sit today (they won't show you this chart on basic cable):

Nvidia $NVDA is announcing earnings TODAY. This is a big deal.

Click here to read everything you need to know about the stock and the semiconductor sector.

And click here to join Sean, Strazza, and me at 3:45 p.m. ET for real-time reactions to the most important earnings announcement ever.

Another thing worth mentioning is that while Technology, which represents over 30% of the S&P500, has been digesting these historic gains since early last year, market breadth has been broadening out to other sectors and industry groups.

Take the Equally-weighted S&P500, for instance.

In this Index, you're getting less than half the weighting in Technology compared to what you get in the more talked-about market-cap weighted S&P500.

You're also getting less than one-third the Tech exposure than what you get in the Nasdaq100.

This Equally-weighted S&P500 Index just closed at another new all-time high yesterday:

And now here's a dashboard of market breadth across market-caps, from Small-caps to Mid-caps to Large.

We're looking at the % of stocks in each sector above a variety of moving averages. The major theme among the components of the S&P1500 is that most stocks are in uptrends, across multiple timeframes.

Remember, it's a "Market of Stocks". And in this market, stocks are going up in price:

What you're NOT seeing at all is stocks falling in price.

They definitely will NEVER show you this on basic cable networks.

You can't have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, without the prices of stocks falling.

These loser gloom and doomers and professional sensationalizers on basic cable can't tell you the truth about market breadth, because they'll lose their jobs.

It's not their job to inform you. It's certainly not their job to help you. They're only job is to get you to keep coming back and consuming their content.

Telling the truth about the lack of new lows does not help their agenda.

So they purposely, and often time maliciously, keep this table away from you.

You're not allowed to see this:

Notice how there aren't any stocks hitting new lows.

Regardless of the sector, regardless of time horizons, none of these cells in the table are increasing.

They're mostly just non-existent.

But that doesn't help the agenda of your local glorified gossip columnists.

They know what they're doing. And helping you and showing you the truth is not a priority.

Nor should it be. That's not their job. It's not their responsibility either.

Our job, however, is to make money. We're investors.

Your job is to make money. You're an investor.

And so as we get ready for what is mathematically the most important earnings report of all-time, literally, here's a broad look at Technology.

In this case, we're looking an an equally-weighted version which eliminates the top-heavy market-cap exposure.

This is the Equally-weighted Tech index, which is still in a well-defined uptrend with higher lows and higher highs, at least for now...

How Nvidia and Semiconductors get through today's big event will be market moving.

You guys know me. Usually I dismiss such things as overhyped and not that important.

And that's because that's almost always the case.

But not today.

Nvidia alone represents 7.6% of the entire Nasdaq100. It's 6.2% of the S&P500.

Nvidia by itself represents over 19% of the entire Technology Index, and it's 19% of the entire Semiconductor Index (50% more than the next largest component).

ALL EYES ON NVIDIA

We'll be LIVE Streaming starting at 3:45PM ET and reacting to the market's behavior post earnings.