All Eyes On The Banks

Alfonso Depablos, CMT
October 12, 2023

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Banks are considered one of the world's most important industry groups as they provide an excellent overview of the economic environment and overall risk appetite toward markets.

After suffering a deep decline in Q1, prices carved out a tradable low, rebounded, and settled into a well-defined trading range.

However, these laggards continue to be a concern for the financial sector and the broader market as the charts look vulnerable heading into earnings season.

Here we have Money-Center Banks $KBE, Regional Banks $KRE, and Community Banks $QABA, all of which are below their AVWAPS from the May lows:

These levels represent the price the average investor has paid since that day, making it a critical area of interest. In other words, the average buyer off the May lows is now in a loss position. 

The fact that prices recently violated these AVWAPS tells us sellers are back in control of these trends.

We're watching to see if we get a decisive reaction higher on the heels of the earnings season that kicks off tomorrow.

If we do, it would be considered a healthy sign for the overall market.

However, bulls don't want to see this risk-on group flush lower and revisit the year-to-date lows. This would signal trouble for risk assets more broadly.

As always, we love to hear from you, so shoot us a note and let us know what you think.

Alfonso

Filed Under