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That Short Term Chop

December 16, 2022

With the major indexes below overhead supply, you're seeing the choppy action.

There are stocks continuing to do very well, like Homebuilders for example. And there are some stocks really struggling, like U.S. Banks.

But in the aggregate, at the index level, you're seeing the grind.

We've discussed the implications of these levels and why a more neutral approach to the indexes in the short-term remains best.

But here's what it looks like today. This resistance, not only represents a key extension from the 2020 declines, but also the AVWAP from the all-time highs, and the 200 day moving average:

There's a lot of reasons for chop near these prices.

And you can see something similar in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. There's a reason why 34,500 was our upside target.

For the time being, our neutral approach continues to be best if we're below these levels:

There are a couple of things to point out here.

First of all, as important as these levels had been in the past, and as important as these levels had been to us as we approached them recently, I would say that the market has now reinforced just how critical these prices really are - for both the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

So while this chop may be frustrating for longs, I think the implications of a future breakout if/when it comes will be that much more important.

It's not just that these levels were once resistance. It's that now with further recognition of these levels, the market is reiterating that yes, in fact, all eyes need to be on these prices.

We'll be discussing all of this and what we're doing about it on Tuesday Night's Live Mid-Month Conference Call.

Premium Members will have access to our entire top/down approach to equities - not just in the U.S. but all over the world. Remember stocks are a global asset class with opportunities in ETFs and ADRs that trade in the U.S. with plenty of liquidity that give us exposure to other countries.

We keep seeing more and more strength coming from International Stocks. In fact, we're actually seeing more stocks in developed countries outside the U.S. making new highs than new lows.

So what are we doing about it?

We'll be discussing all of it on Tuesday night Dec 20th @ 6PM ET. Premium Members can register here.

If you don't have access to the registration, just email Mary.

In the meantime, do you know who doesn't care whether stocks go up, down or even sideways?

Day Traders!

I had always been a terrible day trader. I also hated the fact that I would be stuck in front of my computer all day, in order to trade successfully.

That just wasn't the life I wanted to live.

I like going for a run in the middle of the day. I, like most people, have work to do, meetings to sit in, emails to answer. With what time was I supposed to day trade?

Well, since we brought on Master Trader Kimmy Sokoloff to the team, I have gotten religion.

You can find me in our NEW Trading Room for 60-90 minutes each morning, and that's all I need.

90% of our Day Trades come within the first 90 minutes of trading. About 50% of the trades come within the first 30 minutes.

After 10:30-11AM I can get back to work or whatever it is I want to do - work out, hang with my family, answer emails, anything I want.

I'm not glued to the screen all day. I'm just in there each morning doing a lot of what I've always done - checking markets, getting updated on overnight futures, looking for new trades.

It's pretty great. And it's not just Kimmy and I in there. Some of the other members of our team are regularly popping in there too - Steve Strazza, Sean McLaughlin and others.

Come see it for yourself. You can join us in our Live Trading Room each morning here.

See you in there!

- JC

 

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