From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Reversal - Or Just a Respite?
The new low list peaked in May and the new high list bottomed in July. Despite this, we’ve had more new lows than new highs in 44 of the past 46 weeks.
The Details: More than 4400 stocks (48% of the total on the NYSE + NASDAQ) made new lows in May. That was the most since March 2020. The new low list has ebbed and flowed since then but has not surpassed that peak. The 116 stocks (just 1% of NYSE + NASDAQ total) that made new highs in the first week of July was the fewest since April 2020. Last week 357 stocks (4%) made new highs and 1645 (18%) made new lows.
More Context: When downtrends ready to turn higher and new bull markets are being born, we usually see a sharp collapse in new lows accompanied by a gradual expansion in new highs. The combined effect is that new highs begin to consistently outnumber new lows. We saw this in early 2019 and again after the COVID lows. There were two weeks in August in which the new high list was longer than the new low list, but that turned out to be more respite than reversal.
We take a Deeper Look at other areas where we have seen more respite than reversal and what that means for adding risk ahead of the November elections.
