Even with the impressive bounce heading into the weekend, the S&P 500 last week didn’t even get back up to its December high. Meanwhile nearly 10% of the industry groups in the S&P 1500 and more than 10% of global markets closed at new 52-week highs. That’s the longest new high list by the rest of the world in nearly a year.
The conditions for the re-birth of a bull market were met earlier this month, but the confirmation of strength has been underwhelming. Of the six indicators on our bull market behavior checklist, only one is currently meeting the bull market criteria.
Coming into this week, we’ve seen more new highs than new lows every day so far this year. Improved breadth helped fuel a higher high for the S&P 500. But with the index dropping back into its December range and new highs struggling to expand, the going, for now, is getting rough.
The Value Line Geometric Index peeked above its August high but it continues to struggle with sustaining strength. We don’t have evidence at this point of that being a meaningful peak but for now this proxy for the performance of the median US stock is trodding across well-traveled ground.
The number of stocks making new lows remains negligible. Last week, the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE + NASDAQ surpassed a number of prior peaks (Dec 2021, Apr 2022, Nov 2022). It’s now at its highest level since November 2021.
2023 is on the cusp of producing as many days with new highs greater than new lows in its first month as 2022 produced over the course of the entire year. Yet there are hurdles to overcome to convincingly argue that this recent strength is sustainable.
New highs exceeded new lows last week for the first time since August (and only the third time since November 2021). That is a positive development but there is more work to be done before concluding that a new bull market has been reborn.
The S&P 500 fell 3.4% last week, the 11th time this year that the index was down 3% (or more) in a single week. Only 2008 and 1974 had a larger number of such declines. Paired with the 9 times the S&P 500 has rallied 3% or more in a single week this year, 2022 has now moved ahead of 2009 and is only in third place (still behind 2008 and 1974) with 20 weekly swings of 3% or more in either direction.
Our longer-term risk indicator has been in the Risk Off zone since the beginning of the year. Successive rally attempts have taken it closer and closer to a Risk On signal, but so far it has been unable to break through.
Just when 2022 was getting known for noise, the markets quieted down last week. For the first time in five weeks, the S&P 500 did not move 3% in one direction or the other. For the first time this year, no trading day last week saw the S&P 500 move 1% or more in either direction. We begin a new week with the S&P 500 not having moved 1% or more in either direction in six straight days. It has been a year since it has had a longer streak of small swings.
