From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaways:
- Rally lacks conviction.
- Looking for a thrust I can trust.
- Fed and bond market moves become headwinds for stocks.
In addition to these market concerns, the liquidity backdrop is presenting a more acute challenge for equities. The Fed raised rates 25 basis points last week and the futures market is now looking for another 100 basis points of tightening combined at the May and June FOMC meetings. Corporate bond yields are rising at their fastest pace since the financial crisis and more than half of global central banks are now in tightening mode. During the last cycle, it took the 2-year Treasury yield more than 6 years to move from its low to back above 2%. This cycle it completed that move in just over 1 year. The pace of tightening (from the bond market and from the Fed) matters for equities. Stocks tend to struggle when that pace is elevated, as it appears to be in this cycle.
