Look, This Market Is a Mess, Simple As That

June 24, 2021

For me the Small-caps really tell the story.

Curious what the past 4+ months have been like being long equities?

It looks a lot like this:

Meanwhile, the average Nasdaq stock is down about 10% off its highs and the average S&P500 stock is down about 8.5% off its highs.

Internals peaked in early- to mid-February. The mess of a market is not anything new.

I guess my point is, it continues to be a mess.

But can things get worse?

Yea, if the European Bank Index Fund loses 20, that's a problem:

It's been an ongoing joke (yet serious) since last year that, how can we possibly be bearish stocks if European Banks are breaking out?

We couldn't.

So we weren't.

We had been aggressively bullish stocks for a long time, and looking at that chart above made it easier.

But if that flips and we lose 20 in $EUFN, it's hard to get excited about this market.

Meanwhile, this might be the chart of the quarter here below. How is the Equally-weighted Nasdaq100 going to react to these levels?

A breakout here makes it hard to be bearish of equities.

Mixed signals, to say the least.

But isn't that just a normal characteristic of messy markets?

For sure.

I've had to learn that lesson the hard way over the years.

You should see my sun tan. It's obvious the market has been a mess and cash has been prudent.

Until Tuesday, that is. That Bitcoin trade really got me pumped.

Look at that hammer and follow through yesterday:

The Japanese call that one candlestick a "Hammer", because they say that the Market is Hammering in a Bottom.

The bottom line is, if we're above 30,000 then this is a long.

Anyway, we discussed all these things and so much more on Tuesday night's Premium Conference Call.

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