A Mess, Not A Crash

JC Parets
April 21, 2021

I get asked a lot about why I don't think this is the beginning of a more severe correction.

We've been in the camp that the stock market is a hot mess, particularly in the U.S.

The indexes don't tell the whole story. OK, maybe the Nasdaq does a little...

And we went over all of that on last night's Live Video Conference Call.

But one chart that stands out to me that continues to suggest that this is more of a mess, rather than the beginning of a new crash, similar to last year or even Q4 2018.

It's the list of new lows.

And NOT 52-week lows, because there won't be anything happening there for a while. I'm talking about even much shorter-term lows.

This chart shows the percentage of stock making new 21 day lows. For those wondering, 21 days is about a month's worth of trading:

This is a "Market of Stocks", and not just a stock market.

In order for the indexes to decline, the stock themselves need to drive that.

Last year, we were seeing massive spikes in new lows. This time, we're NOT seeing that.

So, messy market?

Yes.

Beginning of a Crash?

No.

We're just not seeing it that yet.

JC

 

Monthly Conference Call 4.20

Premium Members can watch last night's Conference Call video and download the slides now

Let me know if you have any questions on any of this.

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ASC