[Premium] Quick Commodity Update

First let's start with Crude Oil. Prices mean reverted roughly 38.2% of their Q4 decline and have stalled. With a downward-sloping 200-day moving average and momentum in a bearish range, we'd rather be erring on the short side at current levels.

If prices are below 4,000, then they look vulnerable to roll over again and test their December lows, especially if support near 3,780 breaks.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Gold broke out of a multi-year base to new weekly closing highs, but is now quickly back retesting the breakout area. That leaves us to ask whether this is a failed breakout or a successful retest, but the failed move in Silver that we'll discuss in a minute is suggesting it's likely the former.

Here's a more tactical view of Gold, showing the importance of the 31,600 level where former highs and the rising 200-day moving average sits. Bulls want to see buyers step in and defend that level, or we're likely back into a choppy range-bound trading environment.

Here's the failed breakout in Silver mentioned above. We typically use Silver as a gauge of risk appetite for Precious Metals, so the continued under-performance here is a major headwind for Gold despite its recent breakout to new highs and improvement in the price action of Base Metals.

One potential long opportunity in the space is Jeera, which is largely rangebound between 14,000 and 21,000. Prices recently undercut and reclaimed their early February lows as momentum diverged positively, allowing us to define our risk on the long side for a potential mean reversion. If prices are above 15,360, the bias is to the upside with targets near 16,500 and 17,375.

Two months ago, we talked about a potential catalyst to drive USD/INR higher, but after some initial success prices have stalled out.

Despite the improving performance of the Dollar relative to other Developed and Emerging Market Countries around the world, it can't seem to find its footing relative to the Rupee. Given this chart is smack in the middle of its 69.00-72.25 range, a neutral approach is likely best until the weight of the evidence is more clearly aligned in one direction or another.

Commodities and Currencies have been a tough space for a while, with a lot of failed moves and whipsaws across the board. We've had a few large, successful trades, but not without taking a few small losses in trades that didn't work out along the way.

With that said, these charts appear to be the most relevant/actionable today, but we'll keep you updated as new opportunities develop.

Thanks for reading and please let us know if you have any questions.

Allstarcharts Team