If it walks like a duck and quacks like duck, then it’s probably not a chicken.
That’s how I look at what is potentially year 3 of a new bull market.
Look at all the most important cycle bottoms in stock market history.
You’ll notice the powerful thrust in year 1, followed by a messy digestion of those gains in year 2. And then all those bull markets resumed in year 3:
Now take a look at just the current cycle.
Is this time NOT like all those other times?
And if you’re one of those people who thinks that this time is different because of “the fed” or because of “inflation”, you’re going to have to come up with something better.
Don’t come to me with that weak shit.
If this cycle is not like those others, then price is going to signal that, not the fed, and certainly not the ‘flation flavor of the day.
We’re coming off historically pessimistic sentiment readings. We’re seeing breadth thrusts clustering together over the past month. And this cycle’s price action looks very similar to all those others.
So I’ll ask again, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, are you betting that it’s a chicken?
Let me know what you think.
And if your email is about the fed or one of your ‘flations, please email someone else instead.
PS – Last night was our live mid-month call – and we had plenty of new ideas to discuss. The trade ideas are locked into our Rangefinder app, of course.
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