For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Saturday I spoke at the Trade Ideas Summit in San Diego, outlining our bullish case for US Equities. It was a lot of fun and you can register here to receive the presentation replay when it becomes available.
In honor of the new all-time closing highs in the Russell 3000, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100, I want to outline several stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of our bullish Equities thesis.
For those who didn't check the market today, here's the Russell 3000 making a new all-time closing high, just shy of its former intra-day high of 178. New highs are not a characteristic of a downtrend, so as long as prices are pressing above 178 our upside target is 196 in the coming months.
We've done the homework. New All-time highs are NOT a characteristic of a downtrend. Go back and check for yourself. I was just listening to the great Brooklyn poet Shawn Carter who inspired the headline. It's true. This is not a bear market, by definition. So should we be looking for stocks to sell or should we be looking for stocks to buy?
Have you noticed that with Tech and Software and other areas grinding sideways or lower, we’ve seen a consistent bid in Emerging Markets? ...I really think the squeeze is on.
He was a little bit more, um, verbose in an email header sending this piece to his subscribers that read:
Emerging Market Shorts Will Get Their Faces Ripped Off
Have you noticed that with Tech and Software and other areas grinding sideways or lower, we've seen a consistent bid in Emerging Markets? Have you looked at Brazil lately? The last thing stock market bears want to see is rotation into these serial underperformers.
I don't think this is a tiny story either. I think there is a much bigger theme going on here that would be irresponsible to ignore. First of all, let's make something clear. Copper prices and Emerging Market stocks move together. You can't argue with me on this one.
Copper doesn't move with the "economy". Copper doesn't move with the S&P500. Copper is not a "Dr." of any kind. Copper moves with Emerging Markets. Period:
If we want to know what the largest institutions in the world are doing, we have to look at the biggest stocks. If you have 100 Billion Dollars to put to work, you're not buying crypto currencies or pot stocks in Canada. The big boy sandbox is where we want to look.
My friend Todd Sohn says that your best players are supposed to score a lot of your points. The S&P500 is a cap-weighted index, which means that it owns more of the stocks performing well and less of the ones doing poorly.
This is my favorite time of the month - preparing for our Live Monthly Conference Call. It really gives me an opportunity to gather all of the evidence, put my thoughts and ideas down on paper and then explain it all in under an hour. It's all pretty awesome!
In this call we talk about the US Stock market and where it fits within the Global Market complex. Throughout this process we're also analyzing the commodities, interest rates and currency markets that apply to each country. Only then do we break things down to individual sectors and their sub industry groups to finally find the best stocks to express a bigger thesis.
We call this the top/down approach and I'm pumped to go through it all on Tuesday's Call.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I are focused on expansion of global breadth. We're seeing more and more countries around the world breaking out to new 52-week highs. This week the Global 100 Index is making new highs and now Taiwan has also joined the group with Brazil and Switzerland who were already doing so. With Sweden and Japan right there near highs as well, the breadth expansion continues, not the deterioration that the bears are preaching. It's hard to be bearish equities if the Dow Jones Industrial Average is above 27,000 and the German DAX is above its 2015 highs. Those are the key levels we're watching. But breadth is expanding, not deteriorating. That's for sure.
One week it's the Dow Jones Utility Average pulling the weight. This week it was the Dow Jones Transportation Average up over 2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat. It's always one of them, which is why the Dow Jones Composite Average, the combination of all of them, continues to hold up so well. Remember the DJ Composite has 65 stocks, 30 from the DJIA, 20 from the DJTA and 15 from the DJU. The Dow Jones Composite Average went out at new all-time monthly closing highs just a few weeks back. Our bet is that this uptrend continues.
Here is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones Composite. These are the types of charts we want to be buying, not selling:
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday October 22th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call:
It's been a while since we talked about the Dollar. The truth is, this trade has really been a Nothing-Burger all year. G-10 currencies have been a snooze-fest until just recently. I have good friends who specialize in this space and they're bored. That's not good for their business, but I have a suspicion that things are changing.
Let's get right into it. Here is the US Dollar Index breaking down on a weekly timeframe and unable to hold its previous highs. This sort of thing reminds me a lot of early October 2018 for US Stocks. From failed moves come fast moves, is how I learned it. I've also come to understand over time that this is not something to be afraid of, as many books often hint to. I think this is something to embrace. It presents the best risk vs reward opportunities of any other setup I know: