Wednesday morning I outlined the charts we were watching ahead of the Fed Decision and what we would need to see before getting out of the way and reevaluating our bullish Equities and US Interest Rates thesis.
Today I want to look at those same charts and note what's changed and how we're moving forward.
Today will be a "big" day for markets as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on the new target Federal Funds Rate.
Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp cut and a 20% chance of a 50bp cut. This means market participants have assigned 0% odds to rates remaining where they are after today's meeting.
We've been pretty clear over the last few months about where we stand regarding the different asset classes, so there's not much left to do other than wait and see how prices settle by the end of the week.
With that said, here are a few charts we're watching through Friday's close.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?
When going through my chartbooks this weekend one chart stood out to me, highlighting a theme we've been pointing out to our Institutional Clients that's worth mentioning again.
JC beat me to writing about Interest Rates this morning, but while I came to the same conclusion I wanted to add some additional perspective that shared on Real Vision this past Monday.
While that segment was about Mid-Cap Industrial stock Herman Miller Inc., a big part of that thesis is that we're seeing US Rates begin to stabilize.
The chart I want to share today is the Regional Banks/REITs ratio, which highlights an "Interest"-ing divergence between Equities and the Bond/Commodities markets.
I think there is a big move brewing in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market. US Interest Rates have gotten crushed along with rates all over the world. It's not just a U.S. thing, but a global phenomenon.
Today we're updating our outlook for global markets and providing ideas to profit in the second half of 2019.
Part 1 of this playbook will provide our perspective on all four asset classes and update our views on the major themes within India that we're paying attention to.